Ten Year Trends

Age

8 year olds – 3 wins

9 year olds – 2 wins
10 year olds – 2 wins
11 year olds – 3 wins
12 year olds – 0 win

Average winning age - 9.5 years
All winners aged between 8 and 11

Three of last five winners aged 8 years

Five of last ten winners aged 8 or 9

Five of last ten winners aged 10 or 11
Oldest winner 11; youngest winner 8

Weight

Average winning weight - 10st 13.5lbs
Six of last ten winners carried 11st or under

Five of last ten winners carried between 11st and 11st 9lb
Five of last ten winners carried between 10st 3lb and 10st 13lb

Highest weight 11st 9lb; lowest weight 10st 3lb
All bar two carried no more than 14lb higher than the lowest weight

Rating

Average rating - 150.5
Eight of last ten winners rated between 148 and 160

Six of the last ten winners rated between 150 and 160

Five out of the last ten winners rated between 148 and 153
Highest rated 160; lowest rated 137

Experience

9/10 had between 10 and 25 races over fences (2012 winner had 27 races)
10/10 had at least ten races over fences (8/10 winners had raced between 10 and 15 times)
9/10 had between three and six runs since the start of August (2014 winner raced 8 times)

Form

9/10 had a top-three finish in at least one of their last three runs

8/10 were running in the Grand National for the first time

7/10 had won a chase worth at least £29,000

7/10 finished in the first three in a race over at least 3m 3f

6/10 had no more than one win that season

6/10 were placed in their last race (i.e. 1st, 2nd or 3rd); only three won

6/10 had run at the Cheltenham Festival that season

5/10 had run over hurdles at some point that season

7/10 had either previously run over the National fences (including the Becher Chase) or had a top-six finish in the Welsh National, Irish National, Scottish National or Hennessy Gold Cup. The three exceptions had won valuable handicap chases at Aintree or Cheltenham Festivals previously.

Betting

Fate of the Favourites (most recent last):

1st / 4th, 6th, 3rd / 9th, 13th, 3rd / unseated, 5th, 2nd / 16th, 4th, pulled up, 1st

Winner's position in the market: 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 1

Average winning odds - 23.4/1

5/10 priced between 25/1 and 66/1

5/10 priced between 4/1 and 14/1

Five winners in the first six in the betting

Only two winning favourites in last ten years

Record of previous year's winner:

12th, 3rd, 6th, N/A, N/A, 12th, 16th, N/A, N/A, WON

Other key statistics:

The following statements apply to ALL of the last ten winners:

Officially rated 137 to 160
Carried between 10st 3lb and 11st 9lbs
Aged between 8 and 11
Previously placed over at least three miles
Ran at least ten times over fences during career
Placed in a Class 1 or Class 2 Handicap Chase

9/10 ran between 20 and 56 days prior to the race (One For Arthur was 84 days)
9/10 had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form, had finished placed in the Hennessy Gold Cup, or had previously won at Aintree or Cheltenham Festivals