Personal Picks

So, as morning breaks on Grand National Day and we look forward to a bright and beautiful day for the big race, it's time for me to stick my neck out and make my own personal picks.

When it comes to drawing up my shortlist of contenders, there is one major factor that I pay particular attention to: those horses that have form in one of the well-established trial races for the Grand National, including the Welsh, Scottish, Irish and Midlands versions, as well as the Becher Chase at Aintree, Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury and the long distance races at the Cheltenham Festival.

Let's take a quick look at how those key races are represented this year (not just from this season, but the best placed finishes over the whole racing career of this year's contenders):

Welsh National - Potters Corner (winner), Yala Enki (3rd three times), Ballyoptic (6th), Lord Du Mesnil (9th), Vieux Lion Rouge (10th)

Scottish National - Takingrisks (winner), Ballyoptic (2nd) Cloth Cap (3rd)

Irish National - Burrows Saint (winner), Acapella Bourgeois (3rd), Tout Est Permis (8th), Any Second Now (fell), Shattered Love (p/up), Kimberlite Candy (p/up)

Midlands National - Potters Corner (winner)

Becher Chase - Vieux Lion Rouge (winner & 2nd), Blaklion (winner), Kimberlite Candy (2nd twice), Alpha Des Obeaux (3rd), Definitly Red (4th), Jett (8th), Minellacelebration (10th), Ballyoptic (11th)

Ladbrokes Trophy - Cloth Cap (winner), Mister Malarky (6th), Ballyoptic (10th), Yala Enki (12th), OK Corral (15th)

The usual suspects often appear in several times these major trial races, but overlay this form with the other key stats and my own personal shortlist of seven contenders would have to include:

Cloth Cap

Burrows Saint

Potters Corner

Takingrisks

Kimberlite Candy

Acapella Bourgeois

Any Second Now

Four of these feature in the final shortlist on the trends; Cloth Cap, Potters Corner, Acapella Bourgeois and Any Second Now, so I guess they would have to be my top four predictions.  I've already summarised the claims for each of these on my previous post, so I'll just focus on the other three that didn't quite make the cut on the trends.

It's perhaps no surprise to see me include the winners of the Welsh, Scottish and Irish National in my personal picks, but it's worth highlighting again why Burrows Saint and Takingrisks didn't feature on the final trends shortlist:

Burrows Saint - Best odds currently 9/1

Trained by Willie Mullins, along with stablemate Acapella Bourgeois, this one really should have made it through on the trends.  It was only rejected on one spurious factor only - due to having only nine runs over fences, rather than the ten that is normally the minimum requirement of a Grand National winner.  Is this enough to dismiss his chances?  Of course not.  Burrows Saint has to be on any shortlist as he bids to become the third horse to pull off the big Irish National / Grand National double since 1999, emulating Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde.

Takingrisks - Best odds currently 25/1

I don't know why this one has been largely overlooked, as he's not only a Scottish National winner over four miles on similar ground at this same time of year, but he also beat the hot favourite Cloth Cap on that occasion into third.  Perhaps it's because he's not trained by one of the big names and doesn't represent high profile owners.  However, Nicky Richards has to be respected too, especially as his father Gordon trained two winners of the Grand National, Lucius in 1978 and Hallo Dandy in 1984.  Nicky also scored a treble at the Aintree Festival back in 2005, including the well-loved Monet's Garden, a five times winner at the track.

Takingrisks failed on the trends due to his age, being a veteran at 12 years old now, as well as not having run in 70 days.  But on that occasion the horse still won the Listed Skybet Chase at Doncaster, so he's no back number despite his age.  He's also previously won the Rehearsal Chase at Chepstow, a race landed by Party Politics on route to Grand National glory.

Kimberlite Candy - Best odds currently 16/1

Second in the last two runnings of the Becher Chase, Kimberlite Candy also won the Classic Chase at Warwick last season by 10 lengths, which really marked him out as a future Grand National contender.  He's been targeted at this race all season, but didn't make the shortlist as he's only had the one run - and hasn't been seen on track for 126 days, since he finished runner up at Aintree.  It would be highly unusual if we was able to win a race like the Grand National fresh after such a long lay-off, but I can still see him running a big race and potentially making the frame.

So out of my personal list of fancies, how can I narrow it down further?  Let's go back to the tried and tested method of weight and rating.  I've mentioned the ratings 'sweet spot' several times - and the following horses fit within that narrow six pound band between 147 and 153:

Kimberlite Candy - 153

Any Second Now - 153

Takingrisks - 150

Potters Corner - 149

Cloth Cap - 148

Only Burrows Saint and Acapella Bourgeois sit above this mark, on 156 and 155 respectively, so just outside the range. The weight band I always look out for when they are announced each year is around 10st 6lb to 11st, an eight pound margin (which accounts for 13 of the last 20 winners) and all bar one of the horses on my personal picks and the trends shortlist still fit within that, including these two Irish contenders.

The only exception is Cloth Cap, who would be the lightest handicapped horse to win the Grand National since Auroras Encore won off 10st 3lb in 2013 - and only the second horse to win carrying under 10st 6lb in the last two decades (since Bindaree in 2002).  But remember he is theoretically 14lb well in, so his 'true' racing weight is actually 11st 5lb.  Arguably a horse hasn't been this well treated since Rough Quest won on 10st 7lb in 1996 after finishing runner up in the Gold Cup.

So CLOTH CAP would have to be my five star pick for this year's race, narrowly followed by the three 'National' winners, Burrows Saint, Potters Corner and Takingrisks.  Whoever you choose to back in the big race today, good luck - and enjoy the spectacle of the world's greatest steeplechase!