The Trends

Trends from 1984 to 2019

Despite the ten year dip in the quality of the Grand National from 1999 to 2008, the following statistics can still be applied to the vast majority of winners of the big race in the last 35 years from 1984 onwards (see the Previous Winners tab at the top of the page for full details):

• All winners were aged between 8 and 12 (only five 8yo & three 12yo)
• All bar two winners had winning form over at least 3 miles or more
• All bar three winners had an Official Rating of between 136 and 154
• All bar four winners carried 11 stone 1lb or less to victory (although all four have been in the last decade)
• All bar three winners had won a chase contested by 10+ runners

The weight trends have traditionally been very strong during this period, with 29 of the last 35 winners (83%) carrying a weight of between 10st 2lb and 11st 1lb - just a 13 pound margin. However, as noted above, four of the exceptions above this mark occurred in the last decade alone.  For the first time in my lifetime the recent trends now include more examples of winners at the top of the handicap than lightweights, with six of the last 11 Grand National heroes carrying 11 stone or more to victory.

Wins for Auroras Encore (on 10st 3lb), Pineau De Re (on 10st 6lb), Rule The World (on 10st 7lb), One For Arthur (on 10st 11lb) and Tiger Roll (10st 13lb) in five of the last seven years have seen a return to this traditional weight band, but clearly weight is no longer the defining factor it once was.

In fact, class is now perhaps just as important as stamina, as the ratings band for Grand National winners has completely shifted: ten of the last 12 winners have been rated between 148 and 160, almost flipping the race on its head.  The compression of the handicap, increase in price money, reduction in distance and softening of the fences have all helped to attract better quality horses - and, perhaps inevitably, they are now also winning the race with greater regularity too.

Trends from 1994 to 2019

If we narrow this down further and look at the results from the past 25 years, the following comments apply to every single winner bar Red Marauder and Rule The World.  However, there are reasons for these exceptions; there were extreme conditions in 2001 when only two finished the race initially, while Rule The World, despite being a maiden, still had placed form at the highest level over long distances, including the Irish National.

• Aged between 8 and 12 (only five 8yo and two 12yo)
• Previous winner over at least three miles
• Ran at least ten times over fences during career
• At least three runs that season (since August)
• Previously won a Class 1 or Class 2 Chase
• All bar one ran within the previous 56 days (exception was One For Arthur on 84 days)

Results in the last decade may have put a blot on some of the other historical trends, but we can still also factor in the following statistics since 1994:

• All bar three winners were officially rated 136 to 153
• All bar four winners have carried 11st 1lb or less
• All bar four winners had between four and six runs that season
• All bar two winners had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form, the Hennessy Gold Cup and / or over the famous Aintree fences

On this last point, the exceptions were Ballabriggs and Don't Push It, who had both previously won at either the Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals, so there are still strong form lines to consider when looking for a potential winner.

There's another key trend highlighted regularly in this blog over the years: 22 of the last 29 winners of the race (77%) had a top six finish in the Welsh, Scottish or Irish Nationals, the Hennessy Gold Cup or over the National fences (including this race and the Becher Chase). This includes 8 of the last 10 winners.

It is fascinating to note that 19 out of the last 27 Grand National winners (70%) had run in either the Irish, Welsh or Scottish equivalent at some point in their careers.  Add in the Becher Chase and the statistic is even greater, with 20 out of 27 winners qualifying (74%). Using these statistics alone would be as good a system as any for generating a shortlist of potential winners.