The Result

Well there's always a story with the Grand National - and this year didn't disappoint on that score!  Where to even begin..?

Well, the obvious starting point has to be the phenomenal success of Rachael Blackmore, who has crowned the most incredible season by becoming the first female jockey to win the Grand National.  At last!  It had to happen at some point - and Rachael is one of the best riders around full stop, male or female.  After she finished top jockey at the Cheltenham Festival there was a gamble on Minella Times, her likely ride in the Grand National, but no one could really have imagined that she would add this race to her already impressive CV at such an early stage in her career.  After all, it's less than four years since she won her first race under rules in May 2017.

And what about Henry de Bromhead?  His remarkable training feats are in danger of being overlooked thanks to Rachael's exploits.  Yet not only did he become the first trainer to saddle the winner of the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup in the same season, he's now added the Grand National for an unprecedented Grand Slam.  In fact he trained the first and second horse in both the Gold Cup and Grand National, such has been his truly astounding dominance of the major spring Championship races.

Talking of dominance, the Irish runners bossed this race yet again, underlining their superior horse power after a very one-sided Cheltenham Festival.  The warning signs were already there in 2018, when they saddled the first four home in the Grand National - and again in 2019, when Ireland had four of the first five - but this year only one of the first eleven finishers were trained in Britain.  Of the fifteen horses to finish this year's race, only three were trained on this side of the Irish Sea.  Only two British trained horses have featured in the first five places in the last three renewals of this race.  So it has to be back to the drawing board now for British owners and trainers, as they are being completely outclassed at all of the major jump racing festivals.

It's also back to the drawing board for this blog.  Or perhaps this result even sounds the final death knell for the trends overall?  They have been hit and miss in recent years, but never so wide of the mark in my entire lifetime.  Three of the first five horses home had not even won a race over three miles - and this is the first time since Gay Trip in 1970 you can say that about a Grand National winner.  So much for the importance of proven stamina!  The race conditions changed in 2013 and as a result there have been five trend busting results in eight years, so perhaps now is finally the time to wave the white flag and accept inevitable defeat.

The only small crumb of comfort was the third placed finish for Any Second Now, who surely would have been in there with a fighting chance had he not been hampered badly by a faller earlier in the race, completely stopping his momentum at a crucial stage in the race.  And the Irish National hero Burrows Saint was there too in fourth place, holding up the long distancing staying form.  But never would you have expected two horses completely unproven over further than three miles to outstay these two battle hardened contenders in the finish. 

Not to take anything at all from the winner, or connections, who truly deserve all of the plaudits that will be heaped in their direction.  The result is a real shot in the arm for the race and a great PR opportunity for the sport as a whole.  Hopefully some of you may even have availed yourselves of the 50/1 that was available this morning on an Irish 1-2-3-4, after their dominance was noted in the opening post of this year's blog.  Only the completely unfancied 100/1 shot Balko Des Flos spoiled the obvious Irish combination trifecta.

Just for the record, here's how the winner matched against all of the key trends:

2021 Grand National winner - Minella Times

√  Weight under 11st 1lb - carried 10st 3lb
√  Rated between 138 and 153 - rated 146
√ Aged between eight and eleven - 8 years old
X Winner over minimum of three miles, one furlong - Winner over 2m 6f only
√  Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase - Winner of a maiden and two Grade B Handicaps only
√  Winner of a chase with 10+ runners - Yes, fields of 10 and 12 runners
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences - 10 chase runs before today
X Ran within the last 56 days - last run 62 days previously
√ Between 3 and 6 runs since end of August - three runs
√ Finished placed this season - one win and two seconds
X Top six finish in a National, Hennessy, Becher or Aintree / Cheltenham Festivals - No major form

So definitely not your typical profile for a Grand National winner - even the rating and weight of Minella Times was at the lower end of the usual scale.  There was nothing really in the form book to suggest that the horse would really relish this massive step up in trip either.  The horse was priced on the reputation of trainer and jockey alone, but some times that is more than enough.  And who can argue with that.

Again, the younger horses performed best - and the Grand National winner has been aged eight or nine for the last six years in succession, another notable shift in the trends.  I don't think there's ever been a run like that in the history of the race.  In fact, only one of the first five horses home this year was aged in double figures (the 10 year old runner up Balko Des Flos) and this even included the seven year old Farclas in fifth place, which is almost unheard of.

The clues were there: it's the sixth time in the last seven years that the Grand National was won by a second season chaser.  Only five qualified on that emerging trend - including the winner Minella Times and the fifth placed Farclas.  And coincidentally both competed in the Paddy Power Chase over three miles at Christmas (where Minella Times finished runner-up), which with hindsight looks very solid form now.  That's the same race that Anibale Fly won in 2017, so we'll have to pay close attention to that in the future.

Whether the blog will return in 2022 for the 30th anniversary edition, who knows?!  But thanks very much for reading and I hope my appalling tipping didn't cost you too much money...  Until next time!