As is now traditional on National Eve, it's finally time to reveal those contenders that qualify on all of the trends. I'm sure that eagle eyed readers will have been able to work out which seven horses remain in contention, but without further ado here's this year's final shortlist (in handicap order):
Lake View Lad
Acapella Bourgeois
Any Second Now
Lord Du Mesnil
Potters Corner
Milan Native
Cloth Cap
Not all of these would necessarily feature in my own personal picks - and I think that there are one or two others that really should have made this list, regardless of falling short on one or two of the trends - but more of that later. For now let's look at the credentials of this magnificent seven one by one:
Lake View Lad - best odds currently 70/1
This one just squeezes into the trends list on 11 stone, but don't be fooled by his odds. This eleven year old may not quite be the same force of old, but he started much shorter at 14/1 when pulled up behind Tiger Roll in the 2019 Grand National. He had some good form to his name that season, including winning the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby, but has failed to reproduce the same level so far in 2021.
Nevertheless, he claimed the notable scalp of Santini when winning the Grade Two Many Clouds Chase over 3m 1f at Aintree in December, so he gets in on that performance alone. He also has the services of champion jockey Brian Hughes on board, who carries the colours of owner Trevor Hemmings, who has already been successful in this race on three occasions with Hedgehunter, Ballabriggs and Many Clouds.
One other factor worth considering is that nine of the last ten winners were having their first crack at the Grand National, although this didn't prevent Amberleigh House from winning on his third attempt at the grand old age of 12, or Hedgehunter and Silver Birch succeeding after falling previously. However, when Lake View Lad was pullled up in the 2019 race, the trainer reported that the horse was unsuited by the ground (good to soft, soft in places on that occasion) and would prefer a softer surface, which he won't get again this year.
Acapella Bourgeois - best odds currently 33/1
This one should be much closer in price to stablemate Burrows Saint (currently the 9/1 second favourite) as he beat him decisively last time out to win the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse. Not only does the Bobbyjo feature the name a former Grand National winner, but it's now well established as a key trial, with Hedgehunter winning the race prior to Aintree success, Black Apalachi and Pleasant Company both finishing runner up in the National and Rathvinden third.
All bar one of those were trained by the Irish maestro Willie Mullins, who clearly likes to target his best Grand National contenders at the Bobbyjo, but having finished third in an Irish National (this time behind Burrows Saint) in 2019, there's really not much between his leading pair. Mullins won this race with Hedgehunter back in 2005, but has continued knocking on the door since, finishing 2nd in 2006 & 2018 and 3rd in 2008 & 2019, as well as a couple of sixth placed finishers.
Any Second Now - best odds currently 11/1
Earlier on in the season when the weights came out I took a close look at this horse as it looked like another Ted Walsh special. The trainer won the Grand National with Papillon in 2000, following a massive overnight gamble, and finished third with Seabass in 2012. Any Second Now comes here in good heart, having won the Grade Two Webster Cup at Navan last time out over two miles, scoring a career best rating in the process.
That may not seem the most obvious trial for the Grand National, but this race has been the target all season. The horse won the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2019 and was strongly fancied in Burrow Saint's Irish National when an unfortunate faller fairly early in the race. So this marathon distance remains an unknown quantity, but he certainly has the touch of class required to win and a handy weight of 10st 9lb. He's also right in the middle of the rating 'sweet spot' on a mark of 152.
Lord Du Mesnil - best odds currently 40/1
This horse tends to save his best form for Haydock, where he is a three time course winner, but he won the Grand National Trial there last time out over 3m 4f, a race previously won by Aintree legend Red Rum, as well as Party Politics. Lord Du Mesnil could only finish ninth in the Welsh National behind Secret Reprieve, but does have other top form in the book, having finished runner up in the 2020 National Hunt Chase over 3m 6f at the Cheltenham Festival. He looks a definite stayer, but the big question mark for him is the going, as he appreciates a bit of give in the ground. The faster conditions at Aintree this year may not be to his liking.
Potters Corner - best odds currently 25/1
The 2019 Welsh National winner was well fancied for last year's renewal until it was cancelled, but the horse still received some small reward by winning the Virtual National instead! He's another guaranteed stayer, having also won the Midlands National over 4m 2f, but both of his marathon successes were on heavy ground, so the current going is not ideal. Nevertheless, he has won on good to soft and his season has all been geared around this race as his ultimate target.
Trained on a beach on the South Wales coast, enjoying a preparation like Red Rum, Potters Corner will be bidding to be the first Welsh based winner of the Grand National since Kirkland in 1905. He would also become the fourth Welsh National winner to follow up at Aintree in the last 40 years, following in the hoofprints of Corbiere, Earth Summit and Silver Birch. Bindaree also did the big race double, but only after his Grand National success.
Milan Native - best odds currently 33/1
One of five representatives for Gigginstown Stud in their bid to repeat recent Grand National glory with Rule The World and Tiger Roll. They also have Farclas, Shattered Love, Alpha Des Obeaux and Tout Est Permis set to line up in the big race, although Milan Native would not necessarily be the most fancied of the quintet.
Another former winner of the Kim Muir Fulke Walwyn Handicap Chase over 3m 2f in 2020, he's not been in as good form recently, finishing ninth at this year's Festival. Pulled up on his only outing beyond that trip, this marathon distance is a bit of an unknown quantity. Gordon Elliot does of course know what it takes to train a Grand National winner, having landed the race three times with Silver Birch and Tiger Roll, although it is his assistant Denise Foster who is responsible for saddling the stable's contenders this year.
Cloth Cap - best odds currently 5/1
There might be some juicy prices above, but you won't get rich backing this one. And he's a short priced favourite for this year's race for good reason! Cloth Cap won the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in the autumn (a race that has traditionally been a key trial for the Grand National), before comfortably winning his last race at Kelso in the Listed Premier Chase - the same race used by Ballabriggs to prepare for the Grand National.
Cloth Cap is technically 14lb 'well in' on the handicap after that success, which is why he is so short in the betting. He comes to Aintree in arguably the best form of all of the runners, but it is his third place finish in the Scottish National behind Takingrisks in 2019 that really catches the eye. If he takes to these fences he could be hard to beat.
Like Lake View Lad, Cloth Cap is owned by Trevor Hemmings, who loves to target this race, while Jonjo O'Neil has arguably the best record of any current trainer, winning the Grand National in 2010 with Don't Push It, as well as finishing runner up in 2004 & 2012 and third placed in 2005, 2006 & 2011. With Tom Scudamore in the saddle aiming to emulate his grandfather's Aintree heroics on Oxo it's a team to be reckoned with.
So that's a round up of the seven horses that make up this year's final trends shortlist... It's quite a mixed bag this year, with a wide range of prices available. I wouldn't put you off backing any of them, although clearly they won't all necessarily appreciate the going conditions this year.
In my final post before the big race I'll highlight my own personal picks, as there are at least two or three notable omissions in this shortlist, regardless of what the trends say! And, as always, I'd recommend that you also focus on the 'Staying Power' page of this blog to help you find that elusive winner of the 2021 Grand National.
Good luck!
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