Thursday, 8 April 2021

Questionable Stamina

After giving close consideration to those horses who are sure to relish the marathon trip of the Grand National it's only right that we now turn our attention to those that are unproven over the distance and therefore doubtful stayers.  I'm not saying that some of these may not appreciate the step up to this type of contest, but the stats still say that you need to have proven stamina already in the form book in order to win the Grand National.

So, it's no disrespect to the following horses - who by virtue of their rating clearly still deserve their place in the line-up - but, other than one or two that may improve over this trip, the unique test of the Grand National is unlikely to suit the vast majority who have yet to win over further than three miles.

This once again includes 40% of the field, which is a shame when you consider that horses like Secret Reprieve, who was an impressive winner of this season's Welsh National over 3m 5f, or Some Neck, a winner of the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham in the autumn over 3m 6f, have been denied their place in the line up.

I would personally prefer to see the spectacle of all top stayers competing in the race, either through a 'win and you're in' format for the major trials, by making a 3m+ win a condition of entry, or even by limiting the number of runners per owner - especially when JP McManus and Gigginstown combined account for 30% of those due to take part in this year's race.

I know other National enthusiasts don't necessarily agree with this view - it is a handicap after all - but it's a one-off race, arguably the greatest steeplechase in the world, so the best stayers (not just the top rated horses) should in my view be able to take their place in the line up on merit.

No wins over minimum of 3m

Balko Des Flos
Class Conti
The Long Mile
Farclas
Minella Times

No wins over further than 3m+

Chris's Dream
Magic of Light
Tout Est Permis
Mister Malarkey
Alpha Des Obeaux
Shattered Love
Caberet Queen
Canelo
Double Shuffle
Ami Desbois

No wins over minimum of 3m 1f

Anibale Fly

It's worth noting that both Magic of Light (2nd in 2019) and Anibale Fly (4th in 2018, 5th in 2019) have finished placed in the Grand National itself, so you can't say that these are non-stayers.  But perhaps the stamina sapping distance may have stopped them seeing out the trip in full.  Either way, neither of them qualify on the trends without that crucial win over 3m 1f plus, so both will have to be overlooked in our search for this year's winner.

Next we look at this season's form...

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