1. Only 12 favourites won in the whole of the 20th century - and only nine market leaders have been successful since 1960. However, this does include six winners since 1996; Rough Quest (1996), Earth Summit (1998), Hedgehunter (2005) and Comply or Die, all four starting at 7/1, Don't Push it (10/1 joint fav in 2010) and Tiger Roll (2019) at 4/1.
2. It is perhaps a myth that outsiders always win the National; since 1990 no fewer than 19 of the 29 winners have started between 7/1 and 16/1, with all of these featuring in the first ten in the betting. However, since 2009 we have seen winners at 100/1, 66/1, 33/1 (three times) and 25/1 (twice) which reinforces this idea that the race is a lottery!
3. Only 11 winners have started at less than 10/1 in the last 50 years – the six horses named above, West Tip (1986), Grittar (1982), L’Escargot (1975) and Red Rum (twice, in 1973 and 1977). The shortest priced winner in the last century was Poethlyn at 11/4 in 1919, while Tiger Roll became the first horse to win at odds shorter than 7/1 since L’Escargot in 1975 (or shorter than 6/1 since 1920!) when successful at 4/1.
4. Five horses have won at 100/1 – the 2009 winner Mon Mome joined a select group that includes Foinavon in 1967, Caughoo in 1947, Gregalach in 1929 and Tipperary Tim in 1928 (when only two horses finished).
5. The trend for ratings has shifted downwards since the nineties, with 22 of the last 29 winners rated between 136 and 150. Prior to 1999 all bar one of the previous 15 winners were rated between 147 and 157. For the ten years between 1999 and 2008, all ten winners were rated between 136 and 144. However, the last decade has seen a return to classier winners of the race; the four winners between 2009 and 2012 were rated between 148 and 156, while Many Clouds won off a mark of 160 in 2015, the highest since 1978. Rule the World, One For Arthur and Tiger Roll were all rated between 148 and 150, in the middle of the 10 year average range, although Tiger Roll's second success came off a high mark of 159.
3. Only 11 winners have started at less than 10/1 in the last 50 years – the six horses named above, West Tip (1986), Grittar (1982), L’Escargot (1975) and Red Rum (twice, in 1973 and 1977). The shortest priced winner in the last century was Poethlyn at 11/4 in 1919, while Tiger Roll became the first horse to win at odds shorter than 7/1 since L’Escargot in 1975 (or shorter than 6/1 since 1920!) when successful at 4/1.
4. Five horses have won at 100/1 – the 2009 winner Mon Mome joined a select group that includes Foinavon in 1967, Caughoo in 1947, Gregalach in 1929 and Tipperary Tim in 1928 (when only two horses finished).
5. The trend for ratings has shifted downwards since the nineties, with 22 of the last 29 winners rated between 136 and 150. Prior to 1999 all bar one of the previous 15 winners were rated between 147 and 157. For the ten years between 1999 and 2008, all ten winners were rated between 136 and 144. However, the last decade has seen a return to classier winners of the race; the four winners between 2009 and 2012 were rated between 148 and 156, while Many Clouds won off a mark of 160 in 2015, the highest since 1978. Rule the World, One For Arthur and Tiger Roll were all rated between 148 and 150, in the middle of the 10 year average range, although Tiger Roll's second success came off a high mark of 159.
6. Since 1990, 20 of the 29 winners carried a weight of between 10 stone 3lbs and 10 stone 13lbs – just a ten-pound margin. All bar four of the last 34 winners have carried 11st 1lbs or less. Again, the exceptions have all occurred in recent years, with Don't Push It winning the race off 11st 5lb in 2010, Neptune Collonges carrying 11st 6lb in 2012, Many Clouds winning when just a pound off top weight on 11st 9lb in 2015 and Tiger Roll on 11st 5lb in 2019.
7. In the last 44 years, only seven winners have carried over 11 stone to victory – 2015 hero Many Clouds had the biggest weight of any National winner since Red Rum in 1977. The only other horses to successfully defy a weight over 11 stone in this period were Neptune Collonges on 11st 6lb in 2012, Tiger Roll and Don't Push It on 11st 5lb in 2019 and 2010 respectively, Hedgehunter on 11st 1lbs in 2005, Corbiere on 11st 4lb in 1983 and Grittar on 11st 5lb in 1982. Only Red Rum has succeeded with top weight since 1936.
8. Only 22 horses have been placed carrying more than 11 stone in the last 23 years; however, this does include 17 in the past twelve years. All bar 14 of the 48 horses placed in the last 12 Grand Nationals have carried between 10st 9lb and 11st 9lb. Most recently the trend has shifted back in favour of the lightweights; all bar one of the first 16 finishers in 2014 (including the first four) carried under 11 stone, in 2015 eight out of the first 10 finishers carried 10st 9lb or less; all bar two of the first 15 to finish in 2016 carried 10st 11lb or less, while seven out of the first eight home carried 10st 9lb or less; 2017 was even more marked, with none of the first 15 horses home carrying more than 11st 1lb; in 2018 only two of the 12 finishers carried more than 10st 13lb, while only three horses carried more than 11st in the first 17 horses to finish the race in 2019.
9. In the last 37 renewals (from 1982 onwards), just 20 out of the 148 placed horses have been from out of the handicap (i.e. carrying 10 stone or less). In fact, since Smarty finished runner-up behind Red Marauder in the mud in 2001 no horse with the minimum weight has finished in the first four (although all horses have run from within the handicap in 13 out of the last 14 runnings).
10. Since 1969, only four horses have won carrying the minimum weight of 10 stone (and only nine in whole of the 20th century); Rubstic (1979), Little Polvier (1989), Lord Gyllene (1997) and Bobbyjo (1999) all won from out of the handicap.
11. While recent winning form is not essential, of the last 31 winners all bar three finished in the first three at some point in the season before running in the Grand National – and all bar 11 of the last 41 winners had won a race the same season. All bar one of the last 19 winners had previously won a Class 1 or Class 2 Handicap Chase during their careers; the exception is 2016 hero Rule The World, who was the first ever maiden to win the Grand National!
12. Previous Grand National heroes have a poor record, with only Red Rum and Tiger Roll successful more than once since 1936. Since 1990 there have been 20 winners who returned to Aintree in an attempt to repeat their victory and only one succeeded (Tiger Roll in 2019). There were actually only two dual winners in the 20th Century – the other apart from Red Rum being Reynoldstown. In fact, since Bindaree, only three winners, Pineau De Re, Many Clouds and Tiger Roll, have gone on to score again following their success at Aintree.
13. Several winners have been placed again in the Grand National in subsequent years, including Gay Trip, Corbiere, West Tip, Party Politics, Papillon, Monty’s Pass, Hedgehunter, Comply or Die and Don't Push It.
14. Horses that have previously fallen in the National can still go on to win in later years, such as Specify (1971), L'Escargot (1975), Ben Nevis (1980), West Tip (1986), Little Polveir (1989), Royal Athlete (1995), Red Marauder (2001), Hedgehunter (2005) and Silver Birch (2007).
15. Horses that have run well round Aintree tend to do so again; Red Alligator, L’Escargot, Hallo Dandy and Amberleigh House won after being placed previously (L'Escargot was placed twice and won the race on his fourth attempt), while Eyecatcher, Rough and Tumble, Greasepaint, Durham Edition, Suny Bay, Blowing Wind, Clan Royal, State of Play, Cappa Bleu, Alvarado and Saint Are were all placed more than once.
16. Two recent winners had already enjoyed success over the National fences in the Becher Chase (although not in the same season); Amberleigh House in 2004 and Silver Birch in 2007. Two other Becher winners, Clan Royal and Black Apalachi, both finished second in the race. The 2014 winner Pineau De Re also ran in the Becher Chase, although he was a faller in the race, while One For Arthur finished 5th in the Becher before scoring his victory in the National.
17. Only seven horses aged eight have won the race since 1970, although this does include three of the last five winners: Red Rum in 1973, Corbiere in 1983, Party Politics in 1992, Bindaree in 2002, Many Clouds in 2015, One For Arthur in 2017 and Tiger Roll in 2018. A seven year old has not won the National since 1940 and a six year old has not won since Ally Sloper in 1915.
18. Older (and therefore more experienced) horses tend to fare better; in the last 40 renewals, all bar five victories have gone to horses aged between 9 and 12; crucially all had at least ten runs over fences. However, only one horse aged 12 has won since 1995, so veteran winners are still very much the exception to the rule.
19. Recent history has favoured horses aged between nine and eleven, accounting for 19 of the 23 victories since 1996. Fifteen of these were aged nine or ten, although the three winners between 2012 and 2014, Neptune Collonges, Auroras Encore and Pineau De Re, were all aged eleven. Three of the last five winners (Many Clouds, One For Arthur and Tiger Roll), were eight, but before 2015 you have to go back to Bindaree's win in 2002. No horse aged 13 or over has won since Sergeant Murphy in 1923.
20. It is a myth that 2½ mile specialists do well in the National. Every winner bar one since Gay Trip in 1970 had previous winning form over three miles. In fact all bar three of the last 29 winners had scored victories over at least 3m 1f. One of the notable exceptions was the maiden Rule The World, although he had previously finished runner up in an Irish National over 3 miles, 5 furlongs.
21. The winner normally has two season's chasing experience (i.e. not a novice the previous year). Lord Gyllene, Bindaree and Many Clouds are recent exceptions, but Lord Gyllene had also raced over fences in New Zealand, while Many Clouds was still having his 11th run over fences when winning the race. The last first season novice to win was Mr What in 1958, although Rule The World was still a maiden and was still contesting novice chases before his victory at Aintree.
22. The best trial races have been the Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury), Welsh National (Chepstow), Irish National (Fairyhouse), Scottish National (Ayr), Grand National Trial and Peter Marsh Chase (Haydock). Ten winners of the Grand National since 1983 ran in the Hennessy (five were placed, five unplaced, the sole winner being 2017 hero Many Clouds). Course form is also increasingly an important pointer, with six of the last 13 winners having placed at Aintree previously.
23. The best pointers in recent years have unsurprisingly been other marathon contests. Thirteen of the last 23 winners had won or been placed in a race with 'National' in the title, while 11 of them had previously run in either the Irish or Welsh versions. Two recent winners of the Grand National, Aurora's Encore and Neptune Collonges, had finished 2nd and 6th respectively in the Scottish National prior to winning at Aintree. Pineau De Re was a former winner of the Ulster National, while Rule The World was 2nd in an Irish National and 3rd in the Kerry National. Both Silver Birch and Tiger Roll won the 3m 6f Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival en route to victory at Aintree.
24. Golden Miller (1934) is the only horse to have completed the Gold Cup and Grand National double in the same year (on his second attempt out of four). Thirteen other horses have tried and failed. L’Escargot emulated this feat, but only at his 4th attempt (three years after victory at Cheltenham).
25. Only one horse placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (i.e. 1st, 2nd or 3rd) has gone on to win the National in the same year since the war (Rough Quest in 1996). In 2006 Hedgehunter finished runner up in both races the season after his Aintree success.
26. Running in the Gold Cup is not necessarily a barrier to success, with unplaced horses Grittar, Rhyme N’ Reason, Miinnehoma and Many Clouds all following up with a win at Aintree. Other Grand National winners have subsequently gone on to be placed in the Gold Cup, such as Hedgehunter and Mon Mome, but then failed to successfully defend their crown back at Aintree.
27. While only thirteen Irish-trained horses have won the National since the war this includes nine winners since 1999 – Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Monty’s Pass (2003), Hedgehunter (2005), Numbersixvalverde (2006), Silver Birch (2007), Rule The World (2016) and Tiger Roll (2018 & 2019). Before this, they had a 24-year barren period, when 121 Irish runners came to Aintree and all lost. In fact, from 1976 to 1998 only six Irish horses finished in the first three.
28. Every overseas-trained winner in the past 30 years bar Rule The World had previously scored over British fences. There has not been a French winner of the race since 1867 – and there was a 100 year gap between French bred winners (from 1909 to 2009). However, in the last 16 years French horses have produced three winners, Mon Mome in 2009, Neptune Collonges in 2012 and Pineau De Re in 2014, as well as four runners-up – Clan Royal, Encore En Peu, Mely Moss and Saint Are – and two thirds, My Will and Saint Are.
29. Having a trial race over hurdles is an increasingly popular route to take, as proven by 14 of the last 41 National heroes. This includes 11 horses since 1999 and eight of the last 11 winners; Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Monty’s Pass (2003), Hedgehunter (2005), Numbersixvalverde (2006), Silver Birch (2007), Mon Mome (2009), Don't Push It (2010), Ballabriggs (2011), Pineau De Re (2014) and Tiger Roll (2019).
30. The last mare to win the race was Nickel Coin in 1951, while Neptune Collonges in 2012 became only the third grey horse to win the National – joining The Lamb in 1868 and Nicolaus Silver in 1961.
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