This is one of my favourite posts to write on the blog every year as it invariably is the one to feature the winner. Regardless of what all of the other trends say, if you only pay attention to one statistic it is this: a horse needs to have already won over at least three miles, if not a minimum of three miles and one furlong, in order to have a hope of lasting the marathon trip of the Grand National.
Stamina has always been the key to unlocking this race - but, if anything, now that jumping ability is not so much of a prerequisite due to the modified fences, it's even more important than when it was run over the longer distance of four and a half miles.
Why would this be? The modern Grand National is run at a faster speed generally than races of yore. There's no need to take such a measured view of the daunting fences when they no longer have such an unforgiving core. So horses can't just hack around for a circuit saving energy for the latter part of the race any more, it's a steady pace throughout and one by one the non-stayers get found out.
In any case, it's always been a myth that a two and a half mile specialist is an ideal type for the Grand National. Every winner bar one since Gay Trip in 1970 had previous winning form over a minimum of three miles. In fact all bar three of the last 30 winners had scored victories over at least 3m 1f, a whopping 90%. One of the notable exceptions was the maiden Rule The World, who had previously finished runner up in an Irish National over 3m 5f, so that doesn't really count as he had already proven stamina at the highest level.
Significantly, 12 of the last 14 winners of the Grand National had previously won or finished second over a minimum of 3m 3.5f - and all of them apart from Rule the World had won over at least 3m 1f. So let's take a closer look at the results of the Grand National since the race conditions changed in 2013:
2013 - The first four had all won or been placed in races over 4m+ (the fifth placed horse was also placed over 3m 5f)
2014 - Three of the first four horses had won over a minimum of 3m 3.5f
2015 - Four of the first five had won or been placed over a minimum of 3m 2f (three over 3m 4f+)
2016 - The first five horses had either won or finished runner up in races over 3m 5f+
2017 - The first six all had either won or finished runner up over a minimum of 3m 4.5f
2018 - Five of the first six had all either won or finished placed over at least 3m 2.5f (three over 3m 5f+)
2019 - Five of the first six had all either won or finished placed over at least 3m 2f (four of them over 4m+)
It's quite clear that there's no better way of narrowing the field than focusing on those with proven stamina. So here's the best staying form available in this year's race (in handicap order):
Yala Enki - 3rd in 2018, 2019 & 2021 Welsh National over 3m 6.5f
Ballyoptic - 2nd in 2018 Scottish National over 4m
Burrows Saint - winner of 2019 Irish National over 3m 5f
Magic of Light - 2nd in 2019 Grand National over 4m 2.5f
Acapella Bourgeois - 3rd in 2019 Irish National over 3m 5f
Talkischeap - winner of Bet 365 Gold Cup over 3m 5f
Anibale Fly - 4th & 5th in 2018 & 2019 Grand National over 4m 2.5f
Kimberlite Candy - winner of 2021 Classic Chase over 3m 5f
Any Second Now - winner of 2019 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase over 3m 2f
Alpha Des Obeaux - 3rd in 2019 Becher Chase (3m 2f), 4th in Cross Country (3m 6f)
Takingrisks - winner of 2019 Scottish National over 4m
Lord du Mesnil - winner of 2021 Grand National Trial over 3m 4.5f
Potters Corner - winner of 2019 Midlands National (4m 2f) & Welsh National (3m 6.5f)
Milan Native - winner of 2020 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase over 3m 2f
Discorama - 2nd in 2019 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over 3m 7.5f
Vieux Lion Rouge - winner of 2017 GN Trial (3m 4.5f) & 2016 Becher Chase (3m 2f)
Cloth Cap - 3rd in 2019 Scot National (4m) & winner of 2020 Ladbrokes Trophy (3m 2f)
Blaklion - winner of 2017 Becher Chase (3m 2f), 2nd in GN Trial (3m 4.5f), 4th in GN (4m 2.5f)
Reserves
Some Neck - winner of 2020 Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham over 3m 6f
Secret Reprieve - winner of 2020 Welsh National over 3m 6.5f
This list may include 20 horses (of which only 18 are guaranteed to get a run), but I would be pretty confident in predicting that the 2021 winner will come from this group. Some of them have already been dismissed on the other trends relating to age, experience, weight and ratings, others may still be rejected on recent form or other considerations, but every single one of these horses merits the utmost respect as they have something that the other runners cannot offer - proven stamina.
More importantly, much of the above form comes in some of the key trial races for the Grand National, including the Welsh, Scottish and Irish versions, as well as the Midlands Grand National, Grand National Trial at Haydock, Becher Chase and Ladbrokes Trophy.
We must always remember this key statistic: 22 of the last 29 Grand National winners since 1990 had a top-six finish either over the famous Aintree fences (including the Becher Chase as well as the Grand National itself) or in the Welsh National, Scottish National, Irish National or Ladbrokes Trophy. This includes 10 of the last 12 winners - with the two exceptions Pineau De Re and Tiger Roll a faller in the Becher Chase and pulled up in the Irish National respectively.
Of the seven other instances since 1990 Seagram had at least run in the Hennessy (finishing 9th), while Pineau De Re, Monty's Pass and Lord Gyllene had also all already won other races with 'National' in the title. The other two, Ballabriggs and Don't Push It, were both winners at the previous season's Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals. So there are clear form lines that point to the likely group of winners, who are naturally targeted at these staying contests.
The others who have failed to win over three miles can largely be written off as likely non-stayers, so we will run down the list of all of those that fail to qualify on this crucial stat in the next post.
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