Grand National 2021
Welcome to the 29th edition of my annual Grand National bulletin. After a year's hiatus due to the COVID pandemic the great race is back - and with it my attempt to use historical facts, stats and trends to help pinpoint the winner, or at least provide a shortlist of likely candidates.
Trends followers have taken a bit of a kicking in the last decade or so, but in general this method has served us pretty well over the years, producing a pretty good strike rate of around 50% overall. Yes, the underlying patterns have definitely shifted again over the last ten years, but all we can do is adapt the model to take into account the latest facts and figures as the race continues to evolve and change in the modern era.
Regular readers will know that following the welfare measures implemented seven years ago the essence of the National changed for good - and it was inevitable therefore that some of the historical trends would no longer apply. Nevertheless, in the last three renewals of the race the trends have still performed solidly; five of the first seven horses home all featured on the final shortlist in 2017, the first and fifth horses both qualified on a final shortlist of just four horses in 2018, while the third and fourth place horses both made the shortlist in 2019 (again, from only four horses), despite Tiger Roll becoming the first Grand National winner to successfully defend his crown since Red Rum.
The race has undergone many changes in recent years; not just the shorter distance and more forgiving fences that have been in place from 2013 onwards, but also as a result of amended race conditions and ever-increasing prize money. With a £1 million total prize fund on offer and prize money down to tenth place, the race attracts a very different type of contender these days. In a conscious attempt to attract higher quality horses and make the race more competitive, the handicapper has artificially compressed the weights, which makes it more of a limited handicap. This is why we have seen four horses near the top of the weights win in the last ten years.
Nevertheless, one essential element remains paramount: a horse has to have proven stamina if it's going to stand a chance of winning the Grand National. In 2016 three of the first five horses home had either won or finished runner-up in races over 3m 5f plus. In 2017 the first six finishers all had proven form over a minimum of 3m 4.5f.
This emphasis on stamina has continued again in the last three renewals of the race:
2017
1st - One For Arthur, winner of Classic Chase over 3m 5f
2nd - Cause of Causes, winner of NH Chase (4m) & Cross Country Chase (3m 6f)
3rd - Saint Are, 2nd in the Grand National over 4m 2.5f
4th - Blaklion, 2nd in Grand National Trial over 3m 4.5f, winner of Becher Chase, 3m 2f
5th - Gas Line Boy, winner at Haydock over 3m 4.5f
6th - Vieux Lion Rouge, winner of GN Trial (3m 4.5f) & Becher Chase (3m 2f)
2018
1st - Tiger Roll, dual winner at Cheltenham Festival over 4m and 3m 6f
2nd - Pleasant Company, winner of the Bobbyjo Chase, 3m 1f
3rd - Bless The Wings, 2nd in Irish National, 3m 5f and Cross Country Chase, 3m 6f
4th - Anibale Fly, 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m 2.5f
5th - Milansbar, winner of the Classic Chase, 3m 5f, 2nd in Midlands National, 4m 2f
2nd - Pleasant Company, winner of the Bobbyjo Chase, 3m 1f
3rd - Bless The Wings, 2nd in Irish National, 3m 5f and Cross Country Chase, 3m 6f
4th - Anibale Fly, 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m 2.5f
5th - Milansbar, winner of the Classic Chase, 3m 5f, 2nd in Midlands National, 4m 2f
6th - Road to Riches, 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m 2.5f
2019
1st - Tiger Roll, winner of the Grand National, 4m 2.5f and triple Festival over 3m 6f+
2nd - Magic of Light, winner of a listed race over three miles
3rd - Rathvinden, winner of the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham Festival, 4m
4th - Walk In The Mill, winner of the Becher Chase at Aintree, 3m 2f
5th - Anibale Fly, 4th in the Grand National, 4m 2.5f (2nd & 3rd over 3m 2f)
6th - One For Arthur, winner over 4m 2.5f and 3m 5f
Only one horse placed in the first six home in the last three Grand Nationals hadn't previously won a chase over further than three miles - and that was Magic of Light in 2019. All of the others had either won over 3m 1f and / or finished placed over 3m 2f plus. Fourteen of the eighteen horses above already had form in the book in other marathon staying contests over at least three and a half miles.
It's also worthwhile underlining once again how much staying power has been a factor in the form lines for recent winners, even as some of the other trends were becoming less significant:
Proven stamina of the last 14 Grand National winners
2019 - Tiger Roll, winner over 4m 2f (Grand National)
2019 - Tiger Roll, winner over 4m 2f (Grand National)
2018 - Tiger Roll, winner over 4m (NH Chase)
2017 - One For Arthur, winner over 3m 5f (Classic Chase)
2016 - Rule The World, second over 3m 5f (Irish National)
2015 - Many Clouds, winner over 3m 2f (Hennessy Gold Cup)
2014 - Pineau De Re, winner over 3m 4f (Ulster National)
2013 - Auroras Encore, second over 4m (Scottish National)
2012 - Neptune Collonges, sixth over 4m (Scottish National)
2011 - Ballabriggs, winner over 3m 1.5f (Cheltenham Festival)
2010 - Don't Push It, second over 3m 3.5f (Cheltenham H'cap)
2009 - Mon Mome, second over 3m 5f (Welsh National)
2008 - Comply or Die, winner over 4m 0.5f (Eider Chase)
2007 - Silver Birch, second over 3m 6f (Cross Country Chase)
2006 - Numbersixvalverde, winner over 3m 5f (Irish National)
Twelve of the last 14 winners of the Grand National had previously won or finished second over a minimum of 3m 3.5f - and all bar one (the maiden, Rule The World) had been successful over at least 3m 1f.
However, experience in the National itself is clearly no longer as significant as it once was, with all winners in the last decade bar Tiger Roll making their debut in the race. There's also an interesting trend emerging for younger horses, with the last five winners all aged in single figures and three of them as eight year olds. But crucially all of them still had plenty of chasing experience at the highest level, with at least ten runs over fences - and none were novices.
The last two runnings of the race have marked the best results that the Irish have enjoyed in my lifetime, filling the first four places and saddling five of the first six in 2018 - only Milansbar spoiling the party - while four of the first five horses home in 2019 were trained in Ireland, with Walk In The Mill the only exception in fourth place. After scoring a 1-2-3 two years in a row the Irish have certainly become a force to be reckoned with once again.
2017 - One For Arthur, winner over 3m 5f (Classic Chase)
2016 - Rule The World, second over 3m 5f (Irish National)
2015 - Many Clouds, winner over 3m 2f (Hennessy Gold Cup)
2014 - Pineau De Re, winner over 3m 4f (Ulster National)
2013 - Auroras Encore, second over 4m (Scottish National)
2012 - Neptune Collonges, sixth over 4m (Scottish National)
2011 - Ballabriggs, winner over 3m 1.5f (Cheltenham Festival)
2010 - Don't Push It, second over 3m 3.5f (Cheltenham H'cap)
2009 - Mon Mome, second over 3m 5f (Welsh National)
2008 - Comply or Die, winner over 4m 0.5f (Eider Chase)
2007 - Silver Birch, second over 3m 6f (Cross Country Chase)
2006 - Numbersixvalverde, winner over 3m 5f (Irish National)
Twelve of the last 14 winners of the Grand National had previously won or finished second over a minimum of 3m 3.5f - and all bar one (the maiden, Rule The World) had been successful over at least 3m 1f.
However, experience in the National itself is clearly no longer as significant as it once was, with all winners in the last decade bar Tiger Roll making their debut in the race. There's also an interesting trend emerging for younger horses, with the last five winners all aged in single figures and three of them as eight year olds. But crucially all of them still had plenty of chasing experience at the highest level, with at least ten runs over fences - and none were novices.
The last two runnings of the race have marked the best results that the Irish have enjoyed in my lifetime, filling the first four places and saddling five of the first six in 2018 - only Milansbar spoiling the party - while four of the first five horses home in 2019 were trained in Ireland, with Walk In The Mill the only exception in fourth place. After scoring a 1-2-3 two years in a row the Irish have certainly become a force to be reckoned with once again.
For all of their domination at the Cheltenham Festival, Tiger Roll is only the second horse to win the race for Ireland since 2007, the year that trainer Gordon Elliott broke into the big time when scoring his first win with Silver Birch. Nevertheless, they have now had nine wins in the race since 1999, a complete contrast to their barren period between 1976 and 1998 when only six finishers in the first three were trained on the other side of the Irish Sea, without a single victory.
It's all very different these days and Gigginstown Stud have now had three wins in the last four renewals (with Rule The World as well as Tiger Roll), while Irish trainers have saddled the 1-2-3 for the last two Nationals in a row. Gordon Elliott now has three wins, a second and a third to his name, while his big rival Willie Mullins has had a win, two seconds and two thirds since 2005. No surprises then to see Irish entries dominate again this year horses trained in the Emerald Isle accounting for 50% of horses in the top 40 set to line up (prior to the five day declaration stage).
Tiger Roll sadly won't be one of them this year, with the owners deciding that he was unfairly treated by the handicapper and allotted too much weight for his hat trick attempt. But it's still worth seeing how Tiger Roll measured up against the all-important stats when he won the race for a second time in 2019:
2019 Grand National winner - Tiger Roll trends profile
X Weight under 11st 1lb - carried 11st 5lb
X Rated between 138 and 153 - rated 159
√ Aged between eight and eleven - 9 years old
√ Winner over minimum of three miles, one furlong - Winner over 4m 2.5f and 4m
√ Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase - Yes, C1 Grand National & NH Challenge Cup
√ Winner of a chase with 10+ runners - Yes, fields of 15 (x2), 16, 18 and 40 runners
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences - 19 chase runs
√ Ran within the last 56 days - last run 24 days previously
√ Between 3 and 6 runs since end of August - three runs
√ Finished placed this season - two wins
√ Top six finish in a National, Hennessy, Becher or Aintree / Cheltenham Festivals - winner of the Grand National, three staying chase wins at the Cheltenham Festival
So after a clean sweep for the trends in 2018 it wasn't quite so clear cut in 2019, with Tiger Roll defying his high weight and rating to win. In fact those key trends that had previously served us so well have been far less consistent in the last decade, with several winners coming from the top half of the handicap and four of them carrying 11st 5lb or more.
While a greater degree of flexibility is clearly required when evaluating the trends these days, the combination of weight and stamina still provides the main key to unlocking the Grand National puzzle. Stats are there to be broken, as we have seen many times before, but they're still a very useful tool in helping us to narrow the field and find that elusive Grand National winner.
X Rated between 138 and 153 - rated 159
√ Aged between eight and eleven - 9 years old
√ Winner over minimum of three miles, one furlong - Winner over 4m 2.5f and 4m
√ Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase - Yes, C1 Grand National & NH Challenge Cup
√ Winner of a chase with 10+ runners - Yes, fields of 15 (x2), 16, 18 and 40 runners
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences - 19 chase runs
√ Ran within the last 56 days - last run 24 days previously
√ Between 3 and 6 runs since end of August - three runs
√ Finished placed this season - two wins
√ Top six finish in a National, Hennessy, Becher or Aintree / Cheltenham Festivals - winner of the Grand National, three staying chase wins at the Cheltenham Festival
So after a clean sweep for the trends in 2018 it wasn't quite so clear cut in 2019, with Tiger Roll defying his high weight and rating to win. In fact those key trends that had previously served us so well have been far less consistent in the last decade, with several winners coming from the top half of the handicap and four of them carrying 11st 5lb or more.
While a greater degree of flexibility is clearly required when evaluating the trends these days, the combination of weight and stamina still provides the main key to unlocking the Grand National puzzle. Stats are there to be broken, as we have seen many times before, but they're still a very useful tool in helping us to narrow the field and find that elusive Grand National winner.
Although it might be in vain once again, we will at least try to reduce this year's field down to a final shortlist of no more than six potential contenders.
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