If there is one aspect of the trends that has taken up more focus and attention than any other in my Grand National blog it's weight and rating. These factors have served us so well over the years, yet in the last couple of decades they have not been quite so definitive, leading to question whether or not they're still as relevant as they once were.
It stands to reason that if the race attracts classier runners due to the positive welfare measures that have been implemented, then we are going to see an increased prevalence of horses winning closer to the top of the handicap.
We can essentially split the last forty year history of the Grand National into three eras:
The Traditional Era - 1983 to 1998
Before the fences were softened and the handicap was compressed, horses used to run off their true mark. This meant that at least a third of the field would run from out of the handicap, off the minimum weight of 10 stone. Throughout this period, from Corbiere to Earth Summit, every winner of the Grand National bar three were rated between 147 and 153 - just a narrow six pound margin. This applied with ridiculous regularity. Hallo Dandy was rated 139, Little Polvier was 144 and Maori Venture was 157, otherwise every other winner fell within this range.
The Era of Decline - 1999 to 2008
Then followed a decade of lower quality horses winning the race. It started with Bobbyjo winning off a mark of 142, but right up until Comply or Die's win every horse was rated between 139 and 144, again just a small five pound margin, but remarkably consistent. Handicap marks were downgraded overall in this time, which perhaps explains the fall, but there were fewer quality horses contesting the race, due to the perceived difficulty of carrying weight over the marathon four and a half mile distance of the National. This lead to the handicapper artificially compressing the weights in order to encourage the better class horses to take part.
The Era of Resurgence - 2009 to date
The last 11 years has seen the race largely return to higher rated horses winning the race. From Mon Mome's victory on 148 through to Many Clouds off a record high of 160, ratings have shifted upwards again. Auroras Encore was the only exception, winning off 137, otherwise all winners have been within this 12 pound range, pointing towards a classier type of winner in the modern era.
The changes to the race will certainly have helped, both in terms of the reduced distance and redesigned fences, as it's not as tough as test as it once was, but as a result we are definitely seeing better quality Grand National winners in recent times. Again there's a very consistent range, with six of the last 11 winners rated between 148 and 153, that same margin that applied throughout the eighties and nineties. That's certainly the 'sweet spot' to look out for.
Obviously the ratings are closely related to weight, but throughout each of these 'eras' one factor has stood the test of time - only four winners since 1983 have been able to carry over 11st 1lb to victory (and none off top weight since Red Rum's second success in 1974). However, it's notable that all four exceptions were in the last ten years, so the trends are definitely shifting, with Don't Push It, Neptune Collonges, Many Clouds and Tiger Roll all managing to carry 11st 5lb or more to victory.
Nevertheless, when the result is taken as a whole, the last six renewals have demonstrated again how difficult it is for any horse to carry heavy weights over long distances, certainly compared to their lighter weighted rivals:
2014 - all bar one of the first 16 finishers (including the first four) carried under 11 stone
2015 - eight out of the first 10 finishers carried 10st 9lb or less
2016 - all bar two of the first 15 to finish carried 10st 11lb or less, while seven out of the first eight carried 10st 9lb or less
2017 - none of the first 15 horses to finish carried more than 11st 1lb
2018 - only two of the 12 finishers carried more than 10st 13lb
2019 - only three horses carried more than 11st in the first 17 horses to finish the race.
So while it's dangerous to completed dismiss horses purely on the basis of weight and rating, it's certainly still an important factor to take into consideration. When the weights were revealed in February I confidently predicted that the top ten in the handicap wouldn't win this year's race. Most of those horses have fallen by the wayside and are no longer set to line up, including dual winner Tiger Roll, but the following three horses would still be rejected:
Too high in weight and rating
No horse has won the Grand National with a rating of over 160 since ratings began
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