Season Form

Now we get down to the business end in order to eliminate those that do not have the right profile based on this season's performances.  That could be the absence of any placed form, an insufficient number of runs this season, or a lack of a recent run in the last two months.

All of these are important elements in a typical Grand National winner: they need to come to Aintree in reasonably good form, having at least one placed effort to their name, ideally running three to six times this season and preferably within the last 56 days.

So let's take each of these in turn, first considering season form:

Form - No placed form this season

Only Auroras Encore has won without a finish in the first three since 1990

Ballyoptic

Definitly Red

Anibale Fly

Balko Des Flos

Alpha Des Obeaux

OK Corral

Jett

Hogan's Height

Blaklion

Runs - Not enough runs this season

Since 1990 all bar three winners had between 3 and 6 runs prior to Aintree

Bristol De Mai

Talkischeap

Anibale Fly

Kimberlite Candy

OK Corral

Discorama

Give Me A Copper

Hogan's Height

Ami Desbois

Fitness - Not run within the last 56 days

Only One For Arthur (84 days) won the race after a longer layoff since 1990

Bristol De Mai (63 days)

Yala Enki (63 days)

Kimberlite Candy (126 days)

Takingrisks (70 days)

Discorama (146 days)

Viex Lion Rouge (91 days)

Minellacelebration (91 days)

Give Me A Copper (70 days)

Secret Reprieve (91 days)

Some of these aspects are interlinked, of course, so you see horses appear on more than one list, but again this removes half the field - 20 horses are rejected based on their seasonal performances and preparation in the build up to this year's big race at Aintree.

Now you wouldn't necessarily dismiss the chances of a horse on just one of these factors alone, whether age and experience, weight and rating, or season form.  But put them all together and you start to build a good picture as to whether or not they fit the typical profile of a Grand National winner.

Taking all of these into account, including the all important stamina stat, I make it that we're now down to just seven likely contenders.  You can probably already work out who makes the final shortlist, but all will be revealed on Friday morning...