Age and Experience

Now that the five day declarations are through, it's time to get serious and start putting a line through all of the horses that are rejected on the trends.  This is all based on historical data over the last 50 years - and while there have been a number of statistical blips over the last decade or so, we still need to be ruthless to get down to a manageable shortlist of contenders.

There's a strong argument to say that a lot of these trends no longer apply - and every year there seems to be an exception to at least one of the rules.  Mon Mome was French bred, Auroras Encore had too many career falls, Rule The World was still a maiden, One For Arthur had not raced in the previous two months, while Many Clouds and Tiger Roll were rated too high.  Yet they still qualified on most other counts, so I'm happy to stick with this tried and tested method of narrowing the field.

First we'll take a look at the age of this year's hopefuls.  If they are too young and inexperienced then they will find the hurly burly of the Grand National too much as this early stage in their chasing careers, while the older veterans also tend to struggle to match the form of their younger rivals.  So traditionally we reject any horses aged under eight or over eleven years old.

Recent history favours eight or nine year olds, who have won the last five renewals in a row, but prior to 2015 the optimum age range was between nine and eleven years old.

Eight year olds remain included these days as three of the last five Grand National winners have fallen into this age category.  It's the level of experience that is key, so providing that they have had 10+ runs over fences, have winning form over 3m 1f+ and at least one victory in a Class 1 or Class 2 chase then they should remain in the reckoning.  Only novices of this age should really still be excluded.

So these are the horses that fail to qualify on the basis of age:

Too young - aged seven years or younger

No seven year old has won the Grand National since 1940

The Long Mile

Farclas

Secret Reprieve

Secret Reprieve still needs three horses to come out in order to get a run, but even though the horse was an impressive winner of the Welsh National at Chepstow earlier this year he's still very inexperienced, with only six runs over fences to date.  This race arguably comes too soon for him, even if he is in great form this season, but he's definitely one to watch in the future even if he doesn't get in the final field of 40 runners.

Too old - aged 12 years or over

Only two twelve year olds have won the Grand National since 1990

Definitly Red

Takingrisks

Vieux Lion Rouge

Sub Lieutenant

Blaklion

The above list of veterans includes a Scottish National winner, two Becher Chase winners and two horses placed in the first six in the Grand National itself.  It's not without a great degree of trepidation that some of these are rejected, as horses like Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion are proven stayers with a touch of class and form over the famous birch fences.  Auroras Encore finished runner up in the Scottish Grand National the year before Aintree victory, so Takingrisks is not easily discounted either.

But time catches up with all of us and horses are no exception.  Amberleigh House remains the only 12 year old to win this great race in the last 25 years (since Royal Athlete won in 1995), so we have to stick with the stats and put these eight horses in the reject pile.

The trends relating to age and experience tend to go hand in hand, as again a horse needs to have sufficient exposure to chasing at top level in order to cope with the unique demands of the National, but too many miles on the clock and more exposed horses in the twilight of their careers may no longer have the combination speed and stamina to cope with more youthful challengers.

Too inexperienced - Fewer than ten runs over fences

All winners since 1990 had at least ten chase runs under their belts

Burrows Saint (9 chase runs)

OK Corral (7)

Give Me A Copper (9)

Farclas (7)

Secret Reprieve (6)

Deise Aba (9)

Reluctantly I have to include the 2019 Irish National winner Burrows Saint, trained by the maestro Willie Mullins, as well as this season's Welsh National winner Secret Reprieve (again).  According to the stats, both are too lightly raced and do not have sufficient runs over fences to cope with the hustle and bustle of Aintree.  However, clearly if they are good enough to win an Irish or Welsh National, despite their relative inexperience, then I personally wouldn't want to dismiss their chances out of hand, particularly as they are both proven stayers, which as we see time and time again is far more important.

Too many miles - More than 25 runs over fences

Only Neptune Collonges (27) and Amberleigh House (36) had more runs since 1992

Bristol de Mai (28)

Yala Enki (33)

Definitly Red (27)

Minellacelebration (26)

Sub Lieutenant (34)

Double Shuffle (29)

Inevitably there are some classy types on this list, including those near the top of the handicap.  Bristol de Mai is a worthy top weight, having won the Grade One Betfair Chase an incredible three times (in 2017, 2018 and 2020).  However, he would still be rejected on weight and rating regardless, as we'll see in the next post...