The Result

Well there's always a story with the Grand National - and this year didn't disappoint on that score!  Where to even begin..?

Well, the obvious starting point has to be the phenomenal success of Rachael Blackmore, who has crowned the most incredible season by becoming the first female jockey to win the Grand National.  At last!  It had to happen at some point - and Rachael is one of the best riders around full stop, male or female.  After she finished top jockey at the Cheltenham Festival there was a gamble on Minella Times, her likely ride in the Grand National, but no one could really have imagined that she would add this race to her already impressive CV at such an early stage in her career.  After all, it's less than four years since she won her first race under rules in May 2017.

And what about Henry de Bromhead?  His remarkable training feats are in danger of being overlooked thanks to Rachael's exploits.  Yet not only did he become the first trainer to saddle the winner of the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup in the same season, he's now added the Grand National for an unprecedented Grand Slam.  In fact he trained the first and second horse in both the Gold Cup and Grand National, such has been his truly astounding dominance of the major spring Championship races.

Talking of dominance, the Irish runners bossed this race yet again, underlining their superior horse power after a very one-sided Cheltenham Festival.  The warning signs were already there in 2018, when they saddled the first four home in the Grand National - and again in 2019, when Ireland had four of the first five - but this year only one of the first eleven finishers were trained in Britain.  Of the fifteen horses to finish this year's race, only three were trained on this side of the Irish Sea.  Only two British trained horses have featured in the first five places in the last three renewals of this race.  So it has to be back to the drawing board now for British owners and trainers, as they are being completely outclassed at all of the major jump racing festivals.

It's also back to the drawing board for this blog.  Or perhaps this result even sounds the final death knell for the trends overall?  They have been hit and miss in recent years, but never so wide of the mark in my entire lifetime.  Three of the first five horses home had not even won a race over three miles - and this is the first time since Gay Trip in 1970 you can say that about a Grand National winner.  So much for the importance of proven stamina!  The race conditions changed in 2013 and as a result there have been five trend busting results in eight years, so perhaps now is finally the time to wave the white flag and accept inevitable defeat.

The only small crumb of comfort was the third placed finish for Any Second Now, who surely would have been in there with a fighting chance had he not been hampered badly by a faller earlier in the race, completely stopping his momentum at a crucial stage in the race.  And the Irish National hero Burrows Saint was there too in fourth place, holding up the long distancing staying form.  But never would you have expected two horses completely unproven over further than three miles to outstay these two battle hardened contenders in the finish. 

Not to take anything at all from the winner, or connections, who truly deserve all of the plaudits that will be heaped in their direction.  The result is a real shot in the arm for the race and a great PR opportunity for the sport as a whole.  Hopefully some of you may even have availed yourselves of the 50/1 that was available this morning on an Irish 1-2-3-4, after their dominance was noted in the opening post of this year's blog.  Only the completely unfancied 100/1 shot Balko Des Flos spoiled the obvious Irish combination trifecta.

Just for the record, here's how the winner matched against all of the key trends:

2021 Grand National winner - Minella Times

√  Weight under 11st 1lb - carried 10st 3lb
√  Rated between 138 and 153 - rated 146
√ Aged between eight and eleven - 8 years old
X Winner over minimum of three miles, one furlong - Winner over 2m 6f only
√  Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase - Winner of a maiden and two Grade B Handicaps only
√  Winner of a chase with 10+ runners - Yes, fields of 10 and 12 runners
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences - 10 chase runs before today
X Ran within the last 56 days - last run 62 days previously
√ Between 3 and 6 runs since end of August - three runs
√ Finished placed this season - one win and two seconds
X Top six finish in a National, Hennessy, Becher or Aintree / Cheltenham Festivals - No major form

So definitely not your typical profile for a Grand National winner - even the rating and weight of Minella Times was at the lower end of the usual scale.  There was nothing really in the form book to suggest that the horse would really relish this massive step up in trip either.  The horse was priced on the reputation of trainer and jockey alone, but some times that is more than enough.  And who can argue with that.

Again, the younger horses performed best - and the Grand National winner has been aged eight or nine for the last six years in succession, another notable shift in the trends.  I don't think there's ever been a run like that in the history of the race.  In fact, only one of the first five horses home this year was aged in double figures (the 10 year old runner up Balko Des Flos) and this even included the seven year old Farclas in fifth place, which is almost unheard of.

The clues were there: it's the sixth time in the last seven years that the Grand National was won by a second season chaser.  Only five qualified on that emerging trend - including the winner Minella Times and the fifth placed Farclas.  And coincidentally both competed in the Paddy Power Chase over three miles at Christmas (where Minella Times finished runner-up), which with hindsight looks very solid form now.  That's the same race that Anibale Fly won in 2017, so we'll have to pay close attention to that in the future.

Whether the blog will return in 2022 for the 30th anniversary edition, who knows?!  But thanks very much for reading and I hope my appalling tipping didn't cost you too much money...  Until next time!

Personal Picks

So, as morning breaks on Grand National Day and we look forward to a bright and beautiful day for the big race, it's time for me to stick my neck out and make my own personal picks.

When it comes to drawing up my shortlist of contenders, there is one major factor that I pay particular attention to: those horses that have form in one of the well-established trial races for the Grand National, including the Welsh, Scottish, Irish and Midlands versions, as well as the Becher Chase at Aintree, Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury and the long distance races at the Cheltenham Festival.

Let's take a quick look at how those key races are represented this year (not just from this season, but the best placed finishes over the whole racing career of this year's contenders):

Welsh National - Potters Corner (winner), Yala Enki (3rd three times), Ballyoptic (6th), Lord Du Mesnil (9th), Vieux Lion Rouge (10th)

Scottish National - Takingrisks (winner), Ballyoptic (2nd) Cloth Cap (3rd)

Irish National - Burrows Saint (winner), Acapella Bourgeois (3rd), Tout Est Permis (8th), Any Second Now (fell), Shattered Love (p/up), Kimberlite Candy (p/up)

Midlands National - Potters Corner (winner)

Becher Chase - Vieux Lion Rouge (winner & 2nd), Blaklion (winner), Kimberlite Candy (2nd twice), Alpha Des Obeaux (3rd), Definitly Red (4th), Jett (8th), Minellacelebration (10th), Ballyoptic (11th)

Ladbrokes Trophy - Cloth Cap (winner), Mister Malarky (6th), Ballyoptic (10th), Yala Enki (12th), OK Corral (15th)

The usual suspects often appear in several times these major trial races, but overlay this form with the other key stats and my own personal shortlist of seven contenders would have to include:

Cloth Cap

Burrows Saint

Potters Corner

Takingrisks

Kimberlite Candy

Acapella Bourgeois

Any Second Now

Four of these feature in the final shortlist on the trends; Cloth Cap, Potters Corner, Acapella Bourgeois and Any Second Now, so I guess they would have to be my top four predictions.  I've already summarised the claims for each of these on my previous post, so I'll just focus on the other three that didn't quite make the cut on the trends.

It's perhaps no surprise to see me include the winners of the Welsh, Scottish and Irish National in my personal picks, but it's worth highlighting again why Burrows Saint and Takingrisks didn't feature on the final trends shortlist:

Burrows Saint - Best odds currently 9/1

Trained by Willie Mullins, along with stablemate Acapella Bourgeois, this one really should have made it through on the trends.  It was only rejected on one spurious factor only - due to having only nine runs over fences, rather than the ten that is normally the minimum requirement of a Grand National winner.  Is this enough to dismiss his chances?  Of course not.  Burrows Saint has to be on any shortlist as he bids to become the third horse to pull off the big Irish National / Grand National double since 1999, emulating Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde.

Takingrisks - Best odds currently 25/1

I don't know why this one has been largely overlooked, as he's not only a Scottish National winner over four miles on similar ground at this same time of year, but he also beat the hot favourite Cloth Cap on that occasion into third.  Perhaps it's because he's not trained by one of the big names and doesn't represent high profile owners.  However, Nicky Richards has to be respected too, especially as his father Gordon trained two winners of the Grand National, Lucius in 1978 and Hallo Dandy in 1984.  Nicky also scored a treble at the Aintree Festival back in 2005, including the well-loved Monet's Garden, a five times winner at the track.

Takingrisks failed on the trends due to his age, being a veteran at 12 years old now, as well as not having run in 70 days.  But on that occasion the horse still won the Listed Skybet Chase at Doncaster, so he's no back number despite his age.  He's also previously won the Rehearsal Chase at Chepstow, a race landed by Party Politics on route to Grand National glory.

Kimberlite Candy - Best odds currently 16/1

Second in the last two runnings of the Becher Chase, Kimberlite Candy also won the Classic Chase at Warwick last season by 10 lengths, which really marked him out as a future Grand National contender.  He's been targeted at this race all season, but didn't make the shortlist as he's only had the one run - and hasn't been seen on track for 126 days, since he finished runner up at Aintree.  It would be highly unusual if we was able to win a race like the Grand National fresh after such a long lay-off, but I can still see him running a big race and potentially making the frame.

So out of my personal list of fancies, how can I narrow it down further?  Let's go back to the tried and tested method of weight and rating.  I've mentioned the ratings 'sweet spot' several times - and the following horses fit within that narrow six pound band between 147 and 153:

Kimberlite Candy - 153

Any Second Now - 153

Takingrisks - 150

Potters Corner - 149

Cloth Cap - 148

Only Burrows Saint and Acapella Bourgeois sit above this mark, on 156 and 155 respectively, so just outside the range. The weight band I always look out for when they are announced each year is around 10st 6lb to 11st, an eight pound margin (which accounts for 13 of the last 20 winners) and all bar one of the horses on my personal picks and the trends shortlist still fit within that, including these two Irish contenders.

The only exception is Cloth Cap, who would be the lightest handicapped horse to win the Grand National since Auroras Encore won off 10st 3lb in 2013 - and only the second horse to win carrying under 10st 6lb in the last two decades (since Bindaree in 2002).  But remember he is theoretically 14lb well in, so his 'true' racing weight is actually 11st 5lb.  Arguably a horse hasn't been this well treated since Rough Quest won on 10st 7lb in 1996 after finishing runner up in the Gold Cup.

So CLOTH CAP would have to be my five star pick for this year's race, narrowly followed by the three 'National' winners, Burrows Saint, Potters Corner and Takingrisks.  Whoever you choose to back in the big race today, good luck - and enjoy the spectacle of the world's greatest steeplechase!

The Final Shortlist

As is now traditional on National Eve, it's finally time to reveal those contenders that qualify on all of the trends.  I'm sure that eagle eyed readers will have been able to work out which seven horses remain in contention, but without further ado here's this year's final shortlist (in handicap order):

Lake View Lad

Acapella Bourgeois

Any Second Now

Lord Du Mesnil

Potters Corner

Milan Native

Cloth Cap

Not all of these would necessarily feature in my own personal picks - and I think that there are one or two others that really should have made this list, regardless of falling short on one or two of the trends - but more of that later.  For now let's look at the credentials of this magnificent seven one by one:

Lake View Lad - best odds currently 70/1

This one just squeezes into the trends list on 11 stone, but don't be fooled by his odds.  This eleven year old may not quite be the same force of old, but he started much shorter at 14/1 when pulled up behind Tiger Roll in the 2019 Grand National.  He had some good form to his name that season, including winning the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby, but has failed to reproduce the same level so far in 2021.

Nevertheless, he claimed the notable scalp of Santini when winning the Grade Two Many Clouds Chase over 3m 1f at Aintree in December, so he gets in on that performance alone.  He also has the services of champion jockey Brian Hughes on board, who carries the colours of owner Trevor Hemmings, who has already been successful in this race on three occasions with Hedgehunter, Ballabriggs and Many Clouds.

One other factor worth considering is that nine of the last ten winners were having their first crack at the Grand National, although this didn't prevent Amberleigh House from winning on his third attempt at the grand old age of 12, or Hedgehunter and Silver Birch succeeding after falling previously.  However, when Lake View Lad was pullled up in the 2019 race, the trainer reported that the horse was unsuited by the ground (good to soft, soft in places on that occasion) and would prefer a softer surface, which he won't get again this year.

Acapella Bourgeois - best odds currently 33/1

This one should be much closer in price to stablemate Burrows Saint (currently the 9/1 second favourite) as he beat him decisively last time out to win the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse.  Not only does the Bobbyjo feature the name a former Grand National winner, but it's now well established as a key trial, with Hedgehunter winning the race prior to Aintree success, Black Apalachi and Pleasant Company both finishing runner up in the National and Rathvinden third.

All bar one of those were trained by the Irish maestro Willie Mullins, who clearly likes to target his best Grand National contenders at the Bobbyjo, but having finished third in an Irish National (this time behind Burrows Saint) in 2019, there's really not much between his leading pair.  Mullins won this race with Hedgehunter back in 2005, but has continued knocking on the door since, finishing 2nd in 2006 & 2018 and 3rd in 2008 & 2019, as well as a couple of sixth placed finishers.

Any Second Now - best odds currently 11/1

Earlier on in the season when the weights came out I took a close look at this horse as it looked like another Ted Walsh special.  The trainer won the Grand National with Papillon in 2000, following a massive overnight gamble, and finished third with Seabass in 2012.  Any Second Now comes here in good heart, having won the Grade Two Webster Cup at Navan last time out over two miles, scoring a career best rating in the process.

That may not seem the most obvious trial for the Grand National, but this race has been the target all season.  The horse won the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2019 and was strongly fancied in Burrow Saint's Irish National when an unfortunate faller fairly early in the race.  So this marathon distance remains an unknown quantity, but he certainly has the touch of class required to win and a handy weight of 10st 9lb.  He's also right in the middle of the rating 'sweet spot' on a mark of 152.

Lord Du Mesnil - best odds currently 40/1

This horse tends to save his best form for Haydock, where he is a three time course winner, but he won the Grand National Trial there last time out over 3m 4f, a race previously won by Aintree legend Red Rum, as well as Party Politics.  Lord Du Mesnil could only finish ninth in the Welsh National behind Secret Reprieve, but does have other top form in the book, having finished runner up in the 2020 National Hunt Chase over 3m 6f at the Cheltenham Festival.  He looks a definite stayer, but the big question mark for him is the going, as he appreciates a bit of give in the ground.  The faster conditions at Aintree this year may not be to his liking.

Potters Corner - best odds currently 25/1

The 2019 Welsh National winner was well fancied for last year's renewal until it was cancelled, but the horse still received some small reward by winning the Virtual National instead! He's another guaranteed stayer, having also won the Midlands National over 4m 2f, but both of his marathon successes were on heavy ground, so the current going is not ideal.  Nevertheless, he has won on good to soft and his season has all been geared around this race as his ultimate target.

Trained on a beach on the South Wales coast, enjoying a preparation like Red Rum, Potters Corner will be bidding to be the first Welsh based winner of the Grand National since Kirkland in 1905.  He would also become the fourth Welsh National winner to follow up at Aintree in the last 40 years, following in the hoofprints of Corbiere, Earth Summit and Silver Birch.  Bindaree also did the big race double, but only after his Grand National success.

Milan Native - best odds currently 33/1

One of five representatives for Gigginstown Stud in their bid to repeat recent Grand National glory with Rule The World and Tiger Roll.  They also have Farclas, Shattered Love, Alpha Des Obeaux and Tout Est Permis set to line up in the big race, although Milan Native would not necessarily be the most fancied of the quintet.

Another former winner of the Kim Muir Fulke Walwyn Handicap Chase over 3m 2f in 2020, he's not been in as good form recently, finishing ninth at this year's Festival.  Pulled up on his only outing beyond that trip, this marathon distance is a bit of an unknown quantity.  Gordon Elliot does of course know what it takes to train a Grand National winner, having landed the race three times with Silver Birch and Tiger Roll, although it is his assistant Denise Foster who is responsible for saddling the stable's contenders this year.

Cloth Cap - best odds currently 5/1

There might be some juicy prices above, but you won't get rich backing this one.  And he's a short priced favourite for this year's race for good reason!  Cloth Cap won the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in the autumn (a race that has traditionally been a key trial for the Grand National), before comfortably winning his last race at Kelso in the Listed Premier Chase - the same race used by Ballabriggs to prepare for the Grand National.

Cloth Cap is technically 14lb 'well in' on the handicap after that success, which is why he is so short in the betting.  He comes to Aintree in arguably the best form of all of the runners, but it is his third place finish in the Scottish National behind Takingrisks in 2019 that really catches the eye.  If he takes to these fences he could be hard to beat.

Like Lake View Lad, Cloth Cap is owned by Trevor Hemmings, who loves to target this race, while Jonjo O'Neil has arguably the best record of any current trainer, winning the Grand National in 2010 with Don't Push It, as well as finishing runner up in 2004 & 2012 and third placed in 2005, 2006 & 2011.  With Tom Scudamore in the saddle aiming to emulate his grandfather's Aintree heroics on Oxo it's a team to be reckoned with.

So that's a round up of the seven horses that make up this year's final trends shortlist... It's quite a mixed bag this year, with a wide range of prices available.  I wouldn't put you off backing any of them, although clearly they won't all necessarily appreciate the going conditions this year.

In my final post before the big race I'll highlight my own personal picks, as there are at least two or three notable omissions in this shortlist, regardless of what the trends say!  And, as always, I'd recommend that you also focus on the 'Staying Power' page of this blog to help you find that elusive winner of the 2021 Grand National.

Season Form

Now we get down to the business end in order to eliminate those that do not have the right profile based on this season's performances.  That could be the absence of any placed form, an insufficient number of runs this season, or a lack of a recent run in the last two months.

All of these are important elements in a typical Grand National winner: they need to come to Aintree in reasonably good form, having at least one placed effort to their name, ideally running three to six times this season and preferably within the last 56 days.

So let's take each of these in turn, first considering season form:

Form - No placed form this season

Only Auroras Encore has won without a finish in the first three since 1990

Ballyoptic

Definitly Red

Anibale Fly

Balko Des Flos

Alpha Des Obeaux

OK Corral

Jett

Hogan's Height

Blaklion

Runs - Not enough runs this season

Since 1990 all bar three winners had between 3 and 6 runs prior to Aintree

Bristol De Mai

Talkischeap

Anibale Fly

Kimberlite Candy

OK Corral

Discorama

Give Me A Copper

Hogan's Height

Ami Desbois

Fitness - Not run within the last 56 days

Only One For Arthur (84 days) won the race after a longer layoff since 1990

Bristol De Mai (63 days)

Yala Enki (63 days)

Kimberlite Candy (126 days)

Takingrisks (70 days)

Discorama (146 days)

Viex Lion Rouge (91 days)

Minellacelebration (91 days)

Give Me A Copper (70 days)

Secret Reprieve (91 days)

Some of these aspects are interlinked, of course, so you see horses appear on more than one list, but again this removes half the field - 20 horses are rejected based on their seasonal performances and preparation in the build up to this year's big race at Aintree.

Now you wouldn't necessarily dismiss the chances of a horse on just one of these factors alone, whether age and experience, weight and rating, or season form.  But put them all together and you start to build a good picture as to whether or not they fit the typical profile of a Grand National winner.

Taking all of these into account, including the all important stamina stat, I make it that we're now down to just seven likely contenders.  You can probably already work out who makes the final shortlist, but all will be revealed on Friday morning...

Questionable Stamina

After giving close consideration to those horses who are sure to relish the marathon trip of the Grand National it's only right that we now turn our attention to those that are unproven over the distance and therefore doubtful stayers.  I'm not saying that some of these may not appreciate the step up to this type of contest, but the stats still say that you need to have proven stamina already in the form book in order to win the Grand National.

So, it's no disrespect to the following horses - who by virtue of their rating clearly still deserve their place in the line-up - but, other than one or two that may improve over this trip, the unique test of the Grand National is unlikely to suit the vast majority who have yet to win over further than three miles.

This once again includes 40% of the field, which is a shame when you consider that horses like Secret Reprieve, who was an impressive winner of this season's Welsh National over 3m 5f, or Some Neck, a winner of the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham in the autumn over 3m 6f, have been denied their place in the line up.

I would personally prefer to see the spectacle of all top stayers competing in the race, either through a 'win and you're in' format for the major trials, by making a 3m+ win a condition of entry, or even by limiting the number of runners per owner - especially when JP McManus and Gigginstown combined account for 30% of those due to take part in this year's race.

I know other National enthusiasts don't necessarily agree with this view - it is a handicap after all - but it's a one-off race, arguably the greatest steeplechase in the world, so the best stayers (not just the top rated horses) should in my view be able to take their place in the line up on merit.

No wins over minimum of 3m

Balko Des Flos

Class Conti

The Long Mile

Farclas

Minella Times

No wins over further than 3m+

Chris's Dream

Magic of Light

Tout Est Permis

Mister Malarkey

Alpha Des Obeaux

Shattered Love

Caberet Queen

Canelo

Double Shuffle

Ami Desbois

No wins over minimum of 3m 1f

Anibale Fly

It's worth noting that both Magic of Light (2nd in 2019) and Anibale Fly (4th in 2018, 5th in 2019) have finished placed in the Grand National itself, so you can't say that these are non-stayers.  But perhaps the stamina sapping distance may have stopped them seeing out the trip in full.  Either way, neither of them qualify on the trends without that crucial win over 3m 1f plus, so both will have to be overlooked in our search for this year's winner.

Next we look at this season's form...

Staying Power

This is one of my favourite posts to write on the blog every year as it invariably is the one to feature the winner.  Regardless of what all of the other trends say, if you only pay attention to one statistic it is this: a horse needs to have already won over at least three miles, if not a minimum of three miles and one furlong, in order to have a hope of lasting the marathon trip of the Grand National.

Stamina has always been the key to unlocking this race - but, if anything, now that jumping ability is not so much of a prerequisite due to the modified fences, it's even more important than when it was run over the longer distance of four and a half miles.

Why would this be?  The modern Grand National is run at a faster speed generally than races of yore.  There's no need to take such a measured view of the daunting fences when they no longer have such an unforgiving core.  So horses can't just hack around for a circuit saving energy for the latter part of the race any more, it's a steady pace throughout and one by one the non-stayers get found out.

In any case, it's always been a myth that a two and a half mile specialist is an ideal type for the Grand National.  Every winner bar one since Gay Trip in 1970 had previous winning form over a minimum of three miles.  In fact all bar three of the last 30 winners had scored victories over at least 3m 1f, a whopping 90%.  One of the notable exceptions was the maiden Rule The World, who had previously finished runner up in an Irish National over 3m 5f, so that doesn't really count as he had already proven stamina at the highest level.

Significantly, 12 of the last 14 winners of the Grand National had previously won or finished second over a minimum of 3m 3.5f - and all of them apart from Rule the World had won over at least 3m 1f.  So let's take a closer look at the results of the Grand National since the race conditions changed in 2013:

2013 - The first four had all won or been placed in races over 4m+ (the fifth placed horse was also placed over 3m 5f)

2014 - Three of the first four horses had won over a minimum of 3m 3.5f

2015 - Four of the first five had won or been placed over a minimum of 3m 2f (three over 3m 4f+)

2016 - The first five horses had either won or finished runner up in races over 3m 5f+

2017 - The first six all had either won or finished runner up over a minimum of 3m 4.5f

2018 - Five of the first six had all either won or finished placed over at least 3m 2.5f (three over 3m 5f+)

2019 - Five of the first six had all either won or finished placed over at least 3m 2f (four of them over 4m+)

It's quite clear that there's no better way of narrowing the field than focusing on those with proven stamina.  So here's the best staying form available in this year's race (in handicap order):

Yala Enki - 3rd in 2018, 2019 & 2021 Welsh National over 3m 6.5f

Ballyoptic - 2nd in 2018 Scottish National over 4m

Burrows Saint - winner of 2019 Irish National over 3m 5f

Magic of Light - 2nd in 2019 Grand National over 4m 2.5f

Acapella Bourgeois - 3rd in 2019 Irish National over 3m 5f 

Talkischeap - winner of Bet 365 Gold Cup over 3m 5f

Anibale Fly - 4th & 5th in 2018 & 2019 Grand National over 4m 2.5f

Kimberlite Candy - winner of 2021 Classic Chase over 3m 5f

Any Second Now - winner of 2019 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase over 3m 2f

Alpha Des Obeaux - 3rd in 2019 Becher Chase (3m 2f), 4th in Cross Country (3m 6f) 

Takingrisks - winner of 2019 Scottish National over 4m

Lord du Mesnil - winner of 2021 Grand National Trial over 3m 4.5f

Potters Corner - winner of 2019 Midlands National (4m 2f) & Welsh National (3m 6.5f)

Milan Native - winner of 2020 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase over 3m 2f

Discorama - 2nd in 2019 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over 3m 7.5f

Vieux Lion Rouge - winner of 2017 GN Trial (3m 4.5f) & 2016 Becher Chase (3m 2f)

Cloth Cap - 3rd in 2019 Scot National (4m) & winner of 2020 Ladbrokes Trophy (3m 2f)

Blaklion - winner of 2017 Becher Chase (3m 2f), 2nd in GN Trial (3m 4.5f), 4th in GN (4m 2.5f)

Reserves

Some Neck - winner of 2020 Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham over 3m 6f

Secret Reprieve - winner of 2020 Welsh National over 3m 6.5f

This list may include 20 horses (of which only 18 are guaranteed to get a run), but I would be pretty confident in predicting that the 2021 winner will come from this group.  Some of them have already been dismissed on the other trends relating to age, experience, weight and ratings, others may still be rejected on recent form or other considerations, but every single one of these horses merits the utmost respect as they have something that the other runners cannot offer - proven stamina.

More importantly, much of the above form comes in some of the key trial races for the Grand National, including the Welsh, Scottish and Irish versions, as well as the Midlands Grand National, Grand National Trial at Haydock, Becher Chase and Ladbrokes Trophy.

We must always remember this key statistic: 22 of the last 29 Grand National winners since 1990 had a top-six finish either over the famous Aintree fences (including the Becher Chase as well as the Grand National itself) or in the Welsh National, Scottish National, Irish National or Ladbrokes Trophy. This includes 10 of the last 12 winners - with the two exceptions Pineau De Re and Tiger Roll a faller in the Becher Chase and pulled up in the Irish National respectively.

Of the seven other instances since 1990 Seagram had at least run in the Hennessy (finishing 9th), while Pineau De Re, Monty's Pass and Lord Gyllene had also all already won other races with 'National' in the title.  The other two, Ballabriggs and Don't Push It, were both winners at the previous season's Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals.  So there are clear form lines that point to the likely group of winners, who are naturally targeted at these staying contests.

The others who have failed to win over three miles can largely be written off as likely non-stayers, so we will run down the list of all of those that fail to qualify on this crucial stat in the next post.

Weight and Rating

If there is one aspect of the trends that has taken up more focus and attention than any other in my Grand National blog it's weight and rating.  These factors have served us so well over the years, yet in the last couple of decades they have not been quite so definitive, leading to question whether or not they're still as relevant as they once were. 

It stands to reason that if the race attracts classier runners due to the positive welfare measures that have been implemented, then we are going to see an increased prevalence of horses winning closer to the top of the handicap.

We can essentially split the last forty year history of the Grand National into three eras:

The Traditional Era - 1983 to 1998

Before the fences were softened and the handicap was compressed, horses used to run off their true mark.  This meant that at least a third of the field would run from out of the handicap, off the minimum weight of 10 stone.  Throughout this period, from Corbiere to Earth Summit, every winner of the Grand National bar three were rated between 147 and 153 - just a narrow six pound margin.  This applied with ridiculous regularity.  Hallo Dandy was rated 139, Little Polvier was 144 and Maori Venture was 157, otherwise every other winner fell within this range.

The Era of Decline - 1999 to 2008 

Then followed a decade of lower quality horses winning the race.  It started with Bobbyjo winning off a mark of 142, but right up until Comply or Die's win every horse was rated between 139 and 144, again just a small five pound margin, but remarkably consistent.  Handicap marks were downgraded overall in this time, which perhaps explains the fall, but there were fewer quality horses contesting the race, due to the perceived difficulty of carrying weight over the marathon four and a half mile distance of the National.  This lead to the handicapper artificially compressing the weights in order to encourage the better class horses to take part.

The Era of Resurgence - 2009 to date

The last 11 years has seen the race largely return to higher rated horses winning the race. From Mon Mome's victory on 148 through to Many Clouds off a record high of 160, ratings have shifted upwards again.  Auroras Encore was the only exception, winning off 137, otherwise all winners have been within this 12 pound range, pointing towards a classier type of winner in the modern era.

The changes to the race will certainly have helped, both in terms of the reduced distance and redesigned fences, as it's not as tough as test as it once was, but as a result we are definitely seeing better quality Grand National winners in recent times.  Again there's a very consistent range, with six of the last 11 winners rated between 148 and 153, that same margin that applied throughout the eighties and nineties.  That's certainly the 'sweet spot' to look out for.

Obviously the ratings are closely related to weight, but throughout each of these 'eras' one factor has stood the test of time - only four winners since 1983 have been able to carry over 11st 1lb to victory (and none off top weight since Red Rum's second success in 1974).  However, it's notable that all four exceptions were in the last ten years, so the trends are definitely shifting, with Don't Push It, Neptune Collonges, Many Clouds and Tiger Roll all managing to carry 11st 5lb or more to victory.

Nevertheless, when the result is taken as a whole, the last six renewals have demonstrated again how difficult it is for any horse to carry heavy weights over long distances, certainly compared to their lighter weighted rivals:

2014 - all bar one of the first 16 finishers (including the first four) carried under 11 stone

2015 - eight out of the first 10 finishers carried 10st 9lb or less

2016 - all bar two of the first 15 to finish carried 10st 11lb or less, while seven out of the first eight carried 10st 9lb or less

2017 - none of the first 15 horses to finish carried more than 11st 1lb

2018 - only two of the 12 finishers carried more than 10st 13lb

2019 - only three horses carried more than 11st in the first 17 horses to finish the race.

So while it's dangerous to completed dismiss horses purely on the basis of weight and rating, it's certainly still an important factor to take into consideration.  When the weights were revealed in February I confidently predicted that the top ten in the handicap wouldn't win this year's race.  Most of those horses have fallen by the wayside and are no longer set to line up, including dual winner Tiger Roll, but the following three horses would still be rejected:

Too high in weight and rating

No horse has won the Grand National with a rating of over 160 since ratings began

Bristol de Mai (167)

The Storyteller (165)

Chris's Dream (164)

Next we will move onto the most important factor of all... Stamina.

Age and Experience

Now that the five day declarations are through, it's time to get serious and start putting a line through all of the horses that are rejected on the trends.  This is all based on historical data over the last 50 years - and while there have been a number of statistical blips over the last decade or so, we still need to be ruthless to get down to a manageable shortlist of contenders.

There's a strong argument to say that a lot of these trends no longer apply - and every year there seems to be an exception to at least one of the rules.  Mon Mome was French bred, Auroras Encore had too many career falls, Rule The World was still a maiden, One For Arthur had not raced in the previous two months, while Many Clouds and Tiger Roll were rated too high.  Yet they still qualified on most other counts, so I'm happy to stick with this tried and tested method of narrowing the field.

First we'll take a look at the age of this year's hopefuls.  If they are too young and inexperienced then they will find the hurly burly of the Grand National too much as this early stage in their chasing careers, while the older veterans also tend to struggle to match the form of their younger rivals.  So traditionally we reject any horses aged under eight or over eleven years old.

Recent history favours eight or nine year olds, who have won the last five renewals in a row, but prior to 2015 the optimum age range was between nine and eleven years old.

Eight year olds remain included these days as three of the last five Grand National winners have fallen into this age category.  It's the level of experience that is key, so providing that they have had 10+ runs over fences, have winning form over 3m 1f+ and at least one victory in a Class 1 or Class 2 chase then they should remain in the reckoning.  Only novices of this age should really still be excluded.

So these are the horses that fail to qualify on the basis of age:

Too young - aged seven years or younger

No seven year old has won the Grand National since 1940

The Long Mile

Farclas

Secret Reprieve

Secret Reprieve still needs three horses to come out in order to get a run, but even though the horse was an impressive winner of the Welsh National at Chepstow earlier this year he's still very inexperienced, with only six runs over fences to date.  This race arguably comes too soon for him, even if he is in great form this season, but he's definitely one to watch in the future even if he doesn't get in the final field of 40 runners.

Too old - aged 12 years or over

Only two twelve year olds have won the Grand National since 1990

Definitly Red

Takingrisks

Vieux Lion Rouge

Sub Lieutenant

Blaklion

The above list of veterans includes a Scottish National winner, two Becher Chase winners and two horses placed in the first six in the Grand National itself.  It's not without a great degree of trepidation that some of these are rejected, as horses like Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion are proven stayers with a touch of class and form over the famous birch fences.  Auroras Encore finished runner up in the Scottish Grand National the year before Aintree victory, so Takingrisks is not easily discounted either.

But time catches up with all of us and horses are no exception.  Amberleigh House remains the only 12 year old to win this great race in the last 25 years (since Royal Athlete won in 1995), so we have to stick with the stats and put these eight horses in the reject pile.

The trends relating to age and experience tend to go hand in hand, as again a horse needs to have sufficient exposure to chasing at top level in order to cope with the unique demands of the National, but too many miles on the clock and more exposed horses in the twilight of their careers may no longer have the combination speed and stamina to cope with more youthful challengers.

Too inexperienced - Fewer than ten runs over fences

All winners since 1990 had at least ten chase runs under their belts

Burrows Saint (9 chase runs)

OK Corral (7)

Give Me A Copper (9)

Farclas (7)

Secret Reprieve (6)

Deise Aba (9)

Reluctantly I have to include the 2019 Irish National winner Burrows Saint, trained by the maestro Willie Mullins, as well as this season's Welsh National winner Secret Reprieve (again).  According to the stats, both are too lightly raced and do not have sufficient runs over fences to cope with the hustle and bustle of Aintree.  However, clearly if they are good enough to win an Irish or Welsh National, despite their relative inexperience, then I personally wouldn't want to dismiss their chances out of hand, particularly as they are both proven stayers, which as we see time and time again is far more important.

Too many miles - More than 25 runs over fences

Only Neptune Collonges (27) and Amberleigh House (36) had more runs since 1992

Bristol de Mai (28)

Yala Enki (33)

Definitly Red (27)

Minellacelebration (26)

Sub Lieutenant (34)

Double Shuffle (29)

Inevitably there are some classy types on this list, including those near the top of the handicap.  Bristol de Mai is a worthy top weight, having won the Grade One Betfair Chase an incredible three times (in 2017, 2018 and 2020).  However, he would still be rejected on weight and rating regardless, as we'll see in the next post...

The Trends

Trends from 1984 to 2019

Despite the ten year dip in the quality of the Grand National from 1999 to 2008, the following statistics can still be applied to the vast majority of winners of the big race in the last 35 years from 1984 onwards (see the Previous Winners tab at the top of the page for full details):

• All winners were aged between 8 and 12 (only five 8yo & three 12yo)
• All bar two winners had winning form over at least 3 miles or more
• All bar three winners had an Official Rating of between 136 and 154
• All bar four winners carried 11 stone 1lb or less to victory (although all four have been in the last decade)
• All bar three winners had won a chase contested by 10+ runners

The weight trends have traditionally been very strong during this period, with 29 of the last 35 winners (83%) carrying a weight of between 10st 2lb and 11st 1lb - just a 13 pound margin. However, as noted above, four of the exceptions above this mark occurred in the last decade alone.  For the first time in my lifetime the recent trends now include more examples of winners at the top of the handicap than lightweights, with six of the last 11 Grand National heroes carrying 11 stone or more to victory.

Wins for Auroras Encore (on 10st 3lb), Pineau De Re (on 10st 6lb), Rule The World (on 10st 7lb), One For Arthur (on 10st 11lb) and Tiger Roll (10st 13lb) in five of the last seven years have seen a return to this traditional weight band, but clearly weight is no longer the defining factor it once was.

In fact, class is now perhaps just as important as stamina, as the ratings band for Grand National winners has completely shifted: ten of the last 12 winners have been rated between 148 and 160, almost flipping the race on its head.  The compression of the handicap, increase in price money, reduction in distance and softening of the fences have all helped to attract better quality horses - and, perhaps inevitably, they are now also winning the race with greater regularity too.

Trends from 1994 to 2019

If we narrow this down further and look at the results from the past 25 years, the following comments apply to every single winner bar Red Marauder and Rule The World.  However, there are reasons for these exceptions; there were extreme conditions in 2001 when only two finished the race initially, while Rule The World, despite being a maiden, still had placed form at the highest level over long distances, including the Irish National.

• Aged between 8 and 12 (only five 8yo and two 12yo)
• Previous winner over at least three miles
• Ran at least ten times over fences during career
• At least three runs that season (since August)
• Previously won a Class 1 or Class 2 Chase
• All bar one ran within the previous 56 days (exception was One For Arthur on 84 days)

Results in the last decade may have put a blot on some of the other historical trends, but we can still also factor in the following statistics since 1994:

• All bar three winners were officially rated 136 to 153
• All bar four winners have carried 11st 1lb or less
• All bar four winners had between four and six runs that season
• All bar two winners had experience of running in a ‘National’ race of some form, the Hennessy Gold Cup and / or over the famous Aintree fences

On this last point, the exceptions were Ballabriggs and Don't Push It, who had both previously won at either the Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals, so there are still strong form lines to consider when looking for a potential winner.

There's another key trend highlighted regularly in this blog over the years: 22 of the last 29 winners of the race (77%) had a top six finish in the Welsh, Scottish or Irish Nationals, the Hennessy Gold Cup or over the National fences (including this race and the Becher Chase). This includes 8 of the last 10 winners.

It is fascinating to note that 19 out of the last 27 Grand National winners (70%) had run in either the Irish, Welsh or Scottish equivalent at some point in their careers.  Add in the Becher Chase and the statistic is even greater, with 20 out of 27 winners qualifying (74%). Using these statistics alone would be as good a system as any for generating a shortlist of potential winners.

Welcome

Grand National 2021

Welcome to the 29th edition of my annual Grand National bulletin.  After a year's hiatus due to the COVID pandemic the great race is back - and with it my attempt to use historical facts, stats and trends to help pinpoint the winner, or at least provide a shortlist of likely candidates.

Trends followers have taken a bit of a kicking in the last decade or so, but in general this method has served us pretty well over the years, producing a pretty good strike rate of around 50% overall.  Yes, the underlying patterns have definitely shifted again over the last ten years, but all we can do is adapt the model to take into account the latest facts and figures as the race continues to evolve and change in the modern era.

Regular readers will know that following the welfare measures implemented seven years ago the essence of the National changed for good - and it was inevitable therefore that some of the historical trends would no longer apply.  Nevertheless, in the last three renewals of the race the trends have still performed solidly; five of the first seven horses home all featured on the final shortlist in 2017, the first and fifth horses both qualified on a final shortlist of just four horses in 2018, while the third and fourth place horses both made the shortlist in 2019 (again, from only four horses), despite Tiger Roll becoming the first Grand National winner to successfully defend his crown since Red Rum.

The race has undergone many changes in recent years; not just the shorter distance and more forgiving fences that have been in place from 2013 onwards, but also as a result of amended race conditions and ever-increasing prize money. With a £1 million total prize fund on offer and prize money down to tenth place, the race attracts a very different type of contender these days.  In a conscious attempt to attract higher quality horses and make the race more competitive, the handicapper has artificially compressed the weights, which makes it more of a limited handicap.  This is why we have seen four horses near the top of the weights win in the last ten years.

Nevertheless, one essential element remains paramount: a horse has to have proven stamina if it's going to stand a chance of winning the Grand National.  In 2016 three of the first five horses home had either won or finished runner-up in races over 3m 5f plus. In 2017 the first six finishers all had proven form over a minimum of 3m 4.5f.  

This emphasis on stamina has continued again in the last three renewals of the race:

2017

1st - One For Arthur, winner of Classic Chase over 3m 5f

2nd - Cause of Causes, winner of NH Chase (4m) & Cross Country Chase (3m 6f)

3rd - Saint Are, 2nd in the Grand National over 4m 2.5f

4th - Blaklion, 2nd in Grand National Trial over 3m 4.5f, winner of Becher Chase, 3m 2f 

5th - Gas Line Boy, winner at Haydock over 3m 4.5f

6th - Vieux Lion Rouge, winner of GN Trial (3m 4.5f) & Becher Chase (3m 2f)

2018

1st - Tiger Roll, dual winner at Cheltenham Festival over 4m and 3m 6f
2nd - Pleasant Company, winner of the Bobbyjo Chase, 3m 1f
3rd - Bless The Wings, 2nd in Irish National, 3m 5f and Cross Country Chase, 3m 6f
4th - Anibale Fly, 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m 2.5f
5th - Milansbar, winner of the Classic Chase, 3m 5f, 2nd in Midlands National, 4m 2f

6th - Road to Riches, 3rd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m 2.5f

2019

1st - Tiger Roll, winner of the Grand National, 4m 2.5f and triple Festival over 3m 6f+

2nd - Magic of Light, winner of a listed race over three miles

3rd - Rathvinden, winner of the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham Festival, 4m

4th - Walk In The Mill, winner of the Becher Chase at Aintree, 3m 2f

5th - Anibale Fly, 4th in the Grand National, 4m 2.5f (2nd & 3rd over 3m 2f)

6th - One For Arthur, winner over 4m 2.5f and 3m 5f

Only one horse placed in the first six home in the last three Grand Nationals hadn't previously won a chase over further than three miles - and that was Magic of Light in 2019.  All of the others had either won over 3m 1f and / or finished placed over 3m 2f plus.  Fourteen of the eighteen horses above already had form in the book in other marathon staying contests over at least three and a half miles.

It's also worthwhile underlining once again how much staying power has been a factor in the form lines for recent winners, even as some of the other trends were becoming less significant:

Proven stamina of the last 14 Grand National winners

2019 - Tiger Roll, winner over 4m 2f (Grand National)

2018 - Tiger Roll, winner over 4m (NH Chase)
2017 - One For Arthur, winner over 3m 5f (Classic Chase)
2016 - Rule The World, second over 3m 5f (Irish National)
2015 - Many Clouds, winner over 3m 2f (Hennessy Gold Cup)
2014 - Pineau De Re, winner over 3m 4f (Ulster National)
2013 - Auroras Encore, second over 4m (Scottish National)
2012 - Neptune Collonges, sixth over 4m (Scottish National)
2011 - Ballabriggs, winner over 3m 1.5f (Cheltenham Festival)
2010 - Don't Push It, second over 3m 3.5f (Cheltenham H'cap)
2009 - Mon Mome, second over 3m 5f (Welsh National)
2008 - Comply or Die, winner over 4m 0.5f (Eider Chase)
2007 - Silver Birch, second over 3m 6f (Cross Country Chase)
2006 - Numbersixvalverde, winner over 3m 5f (Irish National)

Twelve of the last 14 winners of the Grand National had previously won or finished second over a minimum of 3m 3.5f - and all bar one (the maiden, Rule The World) had been successful over at least 3m 1f.

However, experience in the National itself is clearly no longer as significant as it once was, with all winners in the last decade bar Tiger Roll making their debut in the race.  There's also an interesting trend emerging for younger horses, with the last five winners all aged in single figures and three of them as eight year olds.  But crucially all of them still had plenty of chasing experience at the highest level, with at least ten runs over fences - and none were novices.

The last two runnings of the race have marked the best results that the Irish have enjoyed in my lifetime, filling the first four places and saddling five of the first six in 2018 - only Milansbar spoiling the party - while four of the first five horses home in 2019 were trained in Ireland, with Walk In The Mill the only exception in fourth place.  After scoring a 1-2-3 two years in a row the Irish have certainly become a force to be reckoned with once again.

For all of their domination at the Cheltenham Festival, Tiger Roll is only the second horse to win the race for Ireland since 2007, the year that trainer Gordon Elliott broke into the big time when scoring his first win with Silver Birch.  Nevertheless, they have now had nine wins in the race since 1999, a complete contrast to their barren period between 1976 and 1998 when only six finishers in the first three were trained on the other side of the Irish Sea, without a single victory.

It's all very different these days and Gigginstown Stud have now had three wins in the last four renewals (with Rule The World as well as Tiger Roll), while Irish trainers have saddled the 1-2-3 for the last two Nationals in a row.  Gordon Elliott now has three wins, a second and a third to his name, while his big rival Willie Mullins has had a win, two seconds and two thirds since 2005.  No surprises then to see Irish entries dominate again this year horses trained in the Emerald Isle accounting for 50% of horses in the top 40 set to line up (prior to the five day declaration stage).

Tiger Roll sadly won't be one of them this year, with the owners deciding that he was unfairly treated by the handicapper and allotted too much weight for his hat trick attempt.  But it's still worth seeing how Tiger Roll measured up against the all-important stats when he won the race for a second time in 2019:

2019 Grand National winner - Tiger Roll trends profile

X Weight under 11st 1lb - carried 11st 5lb
X Rated between 138 and 153 - rated 159
√ Aged between eight and eleven - 9 years old
√ Winner over minimum of three miles, one furlong - Winner over 4m 2.5f and 4m
√  Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase - Yes, C1 Grand National & NH Challenge Cup
√  Winner of a chase with 10+ runners - Yes, fields of 15 (x2), 16, 18 and 40 runners
√ Had at least 10 runs over fences - 19 chase runs
√ Ran within the last 56 days - last run 24 days previously
√ Between 3 and 6 runs since end of August - three runs
√ Finished placed this season - two wins
√ Top six finish in a National, Hennessy, Becher or Aintree / Cheltenham Festivals - winner of the Grand National, three staying chase wins at the Cheltenham Festival

So after a clean sweep for the trends in 2018 it wasn't quite so clear cut in 2019, with Tiger Roll defying his high weight and rating to win.  In fact those key trends that had previously served us so well have been far less consistent in the last decade, with several winners coming from the top half of the handicap and four of them carrying 11st 5lb or more.

While a greater degree of flexibility is clearly required when evaluating the trends these days, the combination of weight and stamina still provides the main key to unlocking the Grand National puzzle.  Stats are there to be broken, as we have seen many times before, but they're still a very useful tool in helping us to narrow the field and find that elusive Grand National winner.

Although it might be in vain once again, we will at least try to reduce this year's field down to a final shortlist of no more than six potential contenders.